Reports

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed weakness throughout the morning, trading at $78.09/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to just above the $77.00/bbl handle at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Price action has been weak amid a continuing lack of confidence in China’s economic stimulus to combat deflation and increases in Libyan crude output. In the news today, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated that Libyan crude production has recovered to 1.3mb/d, reaching levels seen before the political dispute over Libya’s central bank. In other news, the US said it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced anti-missile system. US President Biden has stated that this decision was meant to “defend Israel”, according to Reuters. US officials have yet to announce how quickly their forces will be deployed. Finally, China’s first ultra-deepwater field, Deep Sea 1, is reported to have produced 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900,000 cubic meters of oil to date, as per Xinhua. This development comes as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign hydrocarbons. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.

After initial choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off, trading at $77.86/bbl at 07:00 BST and marginally weakening to $77.82/bbl at 11:00 BST, before plummeting to $76.79/bbl just before 11:30 BST (time of writing). Brent prices showed volatility with the EIA slashing their global oil demand growth forecast by 300kb/d to 1.2mb/d, alongside fears of intensifying conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, Hezbollah is targeting Israeli soldiers with artillery near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh, according to Reuters. However, Hezbollah also signalled that it may be open to a ceasefire with Israel, no longer conditional on a simultaneous truce in Gaza. In other news, Hurricane Milton is due to move through the across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Florida today, with a current wind speed of around 160 mph, according to the US National Hurricane Centre. Due to mass evacuation, at least 21.6% stations in Florida were out of gas at 04:00 BST this morning, as per data from gasoline analyst Patrick De Haan. In addition, around 65kb/d of US Gulf Coast oil output is shut-in, amid port restrictions in preparation for the storm. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.