Reports

Hitting the bull’s eye: CFTC weekly analysis

Speculators for both Brent and WTI portrayed a more bullish outlook as managed by money positions witnessed an increase in longs coupled with a liquidation of shorts for both crude benchmarks

This Week’s Target Price: $85/bbl

Oil prices were seen hovering around the $82.75/bbl handles on Monday morning after last week witnessed the Brent futures for the Apr contract rise by over 1%, following a 6% gain in the previous week.

Brent crude trading below $83/bbl on Monday morning

Crude flat price has been trading a touch below $83/bbl levels on Monday morning, trading at $82.68/bbl at 10:30 GMT. Price action has been well supported amid persistent geopolitical tensions surrounding the Red Sea.

Brent Stays Above The $83/bbl Mark

The April Brent futures is trading at $83.21/bbl at the time of writing, 16:45 GMT. The contract traded down to a low of $81.97/bbl at noon and subsequently experienced a steady rise throughout the afternoon to settle around the $83/bbl mark.

Heating Demand Who?

This fortnight in LNG, we have seen a poor heating demand in Europe amid stocks still at 66% of full capacity compared to last fortnight’s levels of 70%, on Jan 31. Read more in our LNG Report.

Brent slides down to $82/bbl

The Apr Brent futures contract eased off from yesterday’s strength and stood at $82.00/bbl as of 10:30 GMT.

Case Study: Mar Naphtha E/W

Despite the geopolitical risk premia buoying up the naphtha E/W, we recommended shorting the Mar E/W in our Feb 13 naphtha report. Find out more about the logic behind this trade in our new case study.

Brent strengthens to $83/bbl handles

The Apr Brent futures contract breached past the $83/bbl handles at 18:25 GMT on Feb 13 but eased off from this level and was seen hovering around $82.85/bbl as of 10:15 GMT today.

Apr Brent futures holds above the $82/bbl mark

The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $82/bbl mark and trading at $82.72/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar upward momentum with prices at $77.66/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

Gasoline Still Pumping?

Prices have strengthened in the Brent futures, RBOB futures and the ICE LS gasoil futures for the Apr tenor. From a technical perspective, the Apr Brent and RBOB futures are in neutral territory with the RSI around the 60-handles, signalling upward momentum.

This week’s target price: $78-80/bbl

Oil prices dipped slightly into Monday, back into $81/bbl handles, after seeing a 6% gain last week having fallen 9% a week previous, with heavy price swings very characteristic of the market at the moment.

CFTC: Risk-off Brent and Bearish WTI

Managed by money positions saw a removal in both longs and shorts in the benchmark Brent futures whilst WTI futures recorded a flip to bearish positioning in the week to Feb 06.