Reports

Onyx Alpha: Inflection Point

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline and high sulphur fuel oil swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Futures Strengthens To $71.75/bbl

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $70.90/bbl at 07:00 BST to $71.75/bbl at 10:35 BST (time of writing). Prices saw support this morning amid reports of Chinese power demand growing faster than expected in 2024. In the news today, according to the China Electricity Council’s Q3’24 report, the country now sees 2024 electricity consumption growing by 7% to 9.9 trillion kWh. In its previous report, the group had forecast 6.5% growth to 9.82 trillion kWh. In other news, Israel is maintaining the intensity of its attacks on Gaza, with a Reuters report stating at least 60 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in an Israeli strike on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya today. Finally, Reuters reports that Mexico has sent a crude oil cargo of 400kb to Cuba, which is expected to arrive by the end of the week. Cuba is currently experiencing a series of blackouts alongside food and fuel shortages. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.04/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Weakens To $71.35/bbl

The Jan’25 Brent futures saw an interesting trend this afternoon as price action initially rose from the $71/bbl level at 13:00 GMT, creating a triple top pattern near $71.90/bbl before falling lower to $71.35/bbl by 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Alongside reports of PetroChina’s plan to shut its largest refinery in 2025, the Jan’25 contract tested the $71.90/bbl level on multiple occasions throughout the afternoon. However, crude oil prices ultimately failed to sustainably stay above this level, amid a removal of some of the geopolitical risk premium previously supporting oil prices. In the news today, state-owned PetroChina is projected to shut its Dalian Petrochemical plant in 2025, which accounts for 410kb/d, or 3%, of the total Chinese refinery output, according to Reuters. In other news, Chinese oil and gas exploration company CNOOC reported a net profit of $5.2 billion for Q3’24, up by 9% y/y from 2023. In the first nine months of 2024, CNOOC made 9 new discoveries and appraised 23 oil and gas-bearing structures. In other news, IndianOil, the biggest refiner in India, has released its Q2’24 results, showing that the company’s net profit fell by 98.6% y/y, partly influenced by low fuel demand in the monsoon season. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $0.92/bbl, respectively.

Brent Forecast: 28th October 2024

The Market Resets Oil prices finally saw a cooling of the geopolitical risk premia tied to fears of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil and nuclear infrastructure, with the soon-to-be-prompt Jan’25 Brent futures contract falling from a close of $75.62/bbl

Futures Report: The Geopolitical Waiting Game

In the early hours of Saturday, Israel launched a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian military targets, killing 4. This move has temporarily eased the oil market’s anxieties, which have been high on Middle Eastern tensions and the geopolitical risk premium associated. Iran’s response to the strikes has been perceived as quite measured. Ayatollah Khamenei urged caution, emphasising that any response would be a military decision. Israel, on the other hand, seems satisfied with the operation, with Prime Minister Netanyahu describing it as precise and successful. The Biden administration appears keen to cool tensions ahead of the upcoming US election, which has Trump projected to win in many polls and betting sites.

CFTC Weekly: Trick or Sweet (Bear)

In the week ending 22 October, Brent and WTI futures both saw relatively rangebound price movements as the market grappled with fluctuating geopolitical risk sentiment and sluggish Chinese oil consumption. In terms of positioning, money managers got increasingly shorter. Until Israel’s strike on military targets in Iran over the weekend which ultimately deflated the geopolitical risk premium, uncertainty prevailed, with participants expressing varying views regarding potential escalation and ceasefire negotiations. Lacklustre demand from China weighed on sentiment as OPEC and the IEA both cut their global oil demand growth forecasts, with China’s economic troubles being the common denominator.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Dips to $71.10/bbl After Israel’s Retaliation Against Iran

After selling off overnight to around $72.25/bbl following Israel’s Friday night retaliation against Iran for their 01 Oct attack, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract has seen further weakness this morning, moving from $72.55/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $71.10/bbl at 10:20 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices declined as Israel’s attack left Iranian nuclear and oil infrastructure unscathed, easing fears of a potential supply disruption. In the news today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran will “use all available tools” to respond to the Israeli attack on Iran’s military infrastructure, as per Reuters. In other news, India’s Bharat Petroleum has stated that its Russian oil intake for crude processing has fallen to 34% between July and September this year due to maintenance of units at its Bina and Kochi refineries. The state-run company has a production capacity of about 706kb/d across its three refineries in India, according to a Reuters report. Finally, according to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, Eni and BP have resumed exploration in the Libyan Ghadames Basin, where onshore drilling has been halted since 2014. Meanwhile, Repsol is preparing to restart drilling in the Murzuq Basin, and OMV is to begin operations in the Sirte Basin in the coming weeks. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.85/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Touches $76.00/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw consistent support this afternoon, moving from $74.88/bbl at 12:00 BST up to $76.00/bbl shortly before 17:00 BST, before weakening slightly to $75.60/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward pressure this afternoon amid renewed geopolitical risk in the Middle East. In the news, Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least 72 people since Thursday night, after Israeli forces raided the Kamal Adwan Hospital in the northern Gaza. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economy minister has said the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced more than a fifth of the 5.5 million population, with many fleeing to Syria according to Bloomberg. In other news, due to its increased use of natural gas for power generation, the US is now more dependent than fossil fuel power than China. Fossil fuels had an average share of 62.4% of total electricity output in the US since June, compared to 60.5% of generation between June and September in China, as per Reuters. Finally, according to S&P Global, Portuguese state-owned Galp Energia has begun a second exploration at its Orange Basin block offshore Namibia. The first of four wells, Mopane 1-A, is now known to have been constructed on 23 Oct and may hold as much as 10mb of oil. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.57/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Sustained At High $74.00/bbl Levels

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, trading at $75.73/bbl at 07:00 BST and moving up to $76.50/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Price was supported amid intensifying regional conflict in the Middle East and reports of North Korean troops ready to aid Russia in Ukraine. In the news today, Israel has launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the city of Homs, killing one soldier and injuring seven others, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin said today that the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war, in a statement made at a meeting of the BRICS+ group in Russia. In other news, Transocean is in talks to merge with rival offshore drilling contractor Seadrill, looking to capitalize on the boom in deepwater oil exploration, according to Bloomberg. After the announcement, US shares of Seadrill jumped 10% while Transocean shares were up 3.7%. Finally, refiners on the US Gulf Coast have been increasingly turning to Latin American heavy crude, with Mexican state-owned Pemex and Valero Energy both buying Colombian grades, as per Bloomberg. This came as the Trans Mountain line diverted Canadian oil to Asia, with US refiners seeing their usual supply thinning. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.86/bbl, respectively.

Trader Meeting Notes: We Need A Reset Button

Dec’24 Brent futures rose from $73.20/bbl at the start of the week to $76.50/bbl on 24 Oct morning but not without volatility. The benchmark crude futures contract shot up to $76/bbl on 22 Oct before selling off the next day due to an EIA-announced build of nearly 5.5mb in US crude oil inventories. Despite rising again on 24 Oct, prices have fallen to $74.45/bbl as of 15:45 BST (time of writing). The market seems unable to make up its mind about sentiment. Geopolitical risk appears to be waning, but it must not be ignored. At the same time, the market remains squeamish on a bullish China oil demand story due to a lack of clarity regarding fiscal policy. An added driver of market anxiety comes from the much-awaited US Election (in under two weeks now!). 10-year Treasury bond yields surged to multi-month highs this week despite expected rate cuts, as traders bet a Trump presidency could increase inflation and lower bond prices, given the former President’s loovee for the word “tariffs”. This may slow down the Fed’s easing cycle, with the OIS pricing only 23bps of cuts at the next FOMC, potentially impacting risk assets such as oil. This market is frantically seeking a reset button, and only time will tell whether American voters are the antidote we’re all waiting for.

European Window: Brent Sells-Off To $74.30/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract initially showed strength this afternoon, trading at $74.60/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $75.70/bbl at 15:20 BST, however, sold-off to $74.80/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Dec’24 flat price sold-off shortly after the release of EIA data at 15:30 BST today for the week to 18 Oct, which showed a build of 5.47mb in US crude oil inventories, much higher than the expected draw of 0.7mb. In the news today, US refiners are projected to report lower margins for Q3’24 amid tepid fuel demand and increased global supply, according to Reuters estimates. We saw the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack peak at $16.86/bbl before the release of EIA stats today, before trading down to $16.60/bbl at the time of writing. In other news, Hezbollah has confirmed via Telegram that Hashem Safieddine, a likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike three weeks ago, as per Bloomberg. Finally, Italian insurer Generali has announced it is ending coverage for companies involved in downstream oil and gas operations if they do not meet energy transition requirements. This move is based on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Strengthens To $76.50/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, trading at $75.73/bbl at 07:00 BST and moving up to $76.50/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Price was supported amid intensifying regional conflict in the Middle East and reports of North Korean troops ready to aid Russia in Ukraine. In the news today, Israel has launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the city of Homs, killing one soldier and injuring seven others, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin said today that the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war, in a statement made at a meeting of the BRICS+ group in Russia. In other news, Transocean is in talks to merge with rival offshore drilling contractor Seadrill, looking to capitalize on the boom in deepwater oil exploration, according to Bloomberg. After the announcement, US shares of Seadrill jumped 10% while Transocean shares were up 3.7%. Finally, refiners on the US Gulf Coast have been increasingly turning to Latin American heavy crude, with Mexican state-owned Pemex and Valero Energy both buying Colombian grades, as per Bloomberg. This came as the Trans Mountain line diverted Canadian oil to Asia, with US refiners seeing their usual supply thinning. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.86/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Bulls To Rise Amid Intensifying Geopolitical Risk?

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

European Window: Brent Weakens Post-EIA Stats To $74.80/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract initially showed strength this afternoon, trading at $74.60/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $75.70/bbl at 15:20 BST, however, sold-off to $74.80/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Dec’24 flat price sold-off shortly after the release of EIA data at 15:30 BST today for the week to 18 Oct, which showed a build of 5.47mb in US crude oil inventories, much higher than the expected draw of 0.7mb. In the news today, US refiners are projected to report lower margins for Q3’24 amid tepid fuel demand and increased global supply, according to Reuters estimates. We saw the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack peak at $16.86/bbl before the release of EIA stats today, before trading down to $16.60/bbl at the time of writing. In other news, Hezbollah has confirmed via Telegram that Hashem Safieddine, a likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike three weeks ago, as per Bloomberg. Finally, Italian insurer Generali has announced it is ending coverage for companies involved in downstream oil and gas operations if they do not meet energy transition requirements. This move is based on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.