The Risk is On: CFTC Weekly Analysis
For the week to Apr 09, we saw money managers add to both their long and short risk in the both Brent and WTI futures….
For the week to Apr 09, we saw money managers add to both their long and short risk in the both Brent and WTI futures….
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has witnessed a weaker morning, falling from highs of $90.64/bbl in the early hours to lows of $89.23/bbl at 09:05 BST. Prices saw a slight uptick since, printing at $89.69/bbl at 11:20 BST.
Jun Brent flat price has seen an interesting afternoon amid price action finally breaking into $91/bbl handles at 13:30 BST and hitting a peak of $92.10/bbl at 15:25 BST.
As crude prices strengthen, producers remain keen to keep crude flowing. However, these wells in the US produce natural gas as a by-product, leading to an even greater supply glut.
June Brent futures flat price maintained strength in the $90/bbl handles this morning. Initially prices hovered around $90.20/bbl during the early hours, before support has seen price action push towards the $91/bbl mark, printing at $90.76/bbl at 11:20 BST.
Jun Brent futures flat price oscillated in and out of $90/bbl handles all afternoon, reaching a low of $89.40/bbl around 15:50 BST before correcting to $90.05/bbl at 17:10 BST but falling to $89.90/bbl handles come 17:20 BST (time of writing).
We have been holding firmly in the $90/bbl levels for Brent this week, with investors poised for the Middle East situation to possibly deteriorate, which could involve Iran, the third-largest oil producer in OPEC.
The prompt Brent Futures contract saw a stable start to the morning, rangebound between $90.40/bbl and $90.90/bbl before seeing a strong correction downwards from 09:30 BST to settle at $90.06/bbl at 10:20 BST.
In the week to April 9th, our tool forecasts long speculators added to their positions for the fourth consecutive week while at the same time, short money managers are forecast to have also added to their positions after three consecutive
June Brent futures flat price witnessed a choppy afternoon, rallying back into the $90/bbl region at 14:10 BST but failing to maintain this level and falling to $88.95/bbl come 16:10 BST.
The LST/FEI arb witnessed notable weakness in the first week of the fortnight. Prompt prices fell from -$160/mt on Mar 27 to lows of -$186/mt come Apr 02, before retracing to above the -$180/mt mark for the rest of the week.
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Prompt Brent futures flat price has witnessed a relatively weak afternoon period. Prices were initially stable around the $90.50/bbl mark, reaching highs of $90.71/bbl at 13:10 BST. However, since then prices slipped lower, reaching $89.56/bbl at 16:12 BST.
This past fortnight has seen a far weaker naphtha complex in both regions, yet, the East has performed slightly better in the past couple days.
The past fortnight forced the May Brent/Dubai out of its range, with price action plummeting from +15c/bbl on Mar 25 to a low of -40c/bbl on Apr 02.