Reports

Oil Monthly Report: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Between a Rock and a Hard Place -Brent price action in November was like waiting for Godot, with the flat price failing to break out convincingly to either side and trading in a range of circa $71-75/bbl. The dynamic governing the direction of oil prices remains intact. OPEC+ production cuts provide somewhat of a floor while weak or disappointing economic data instil a cap to generate a downward channel since April. Brent within this range is buffeted by dollar strength and the ups and downs of geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine (deployment of new missiles) and the Middle East (truce between Israel and Hezbollah). Heading into 2025, we do not expect this dynamic to change much. While several asset classes reacted positively to the re-election of Donald J Trump as the 47th president of the United States, such as equities, crypto-currencies or the dollar, the reaction of oil was underwhelming, with Brent down a couple of dollars by the end of the week of the election…

European Window: Brent Weakens To $71.77/bbl

The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this afternoon, falling from $72.66/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.77/bbl at 17:55 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Iran-backed Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah has no plans for now to join them, according to a Reuters report. Meanwhile, Hezbollah launched an attack on an Israeli army position in the Mount Dov area, as an “initial warning” amid “continued violation of Lebanese airspace by hostile Israeli aircraft”, The Times of Israel reported. This came as US special envoy Amos Hochstein reportedly sent a message urging Israel to uphold the ceasefire deal, in light of Israeli drone flights over Beirut. In other news, Asia’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia rose to 5.83mb/d in November, up from 5.28mb/d in October, as per data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. In addition, Russia’s supplies to Asia dropped to 3.51mb/d in November, the lowest level since January, according to LSEG. Finally, Gazprom’s natural gas flows via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters annually, as per Russian news agency Interfax. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.

Futures Report: Driverless Markets

The crude oil market was rangebound and directionless in the past week, mostly stemming from the low liquidity associated with the US Thanksgiving holiday period. Price action initially came off by $2 on 25 Nov in response to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which diminished geopolitical risk. The market is also in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which was delayed until 5 Dec. The group is largely expected to delay the return of barrels, indicating their support for higher prices instead of market share. Price action in the Feb’25 Brent came off from $74.50/bbl to $72.50/bbl on 25 Nov before largely rangebound between the $72 and $73/bbl range for the rest of the week.

Brent Forecast: 2nd December 2024

The front-month February 2025 Brent contract kicked off Monday by rebounding from last Friday’s lows, trading towards $72.70/bbl at the time of writing. However, the path of least resistance for the flat price this week is still one of weakness

CFTC Weekly: Bulls and Bears Proceed With Caution

ICE COT – In the week ending 26 November, money managers were risk-off in Brent crude futures amid waning geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Speculative players reduced both their long and short positions by -1.55% and -5.05%, respectively, which brought the long:short ratio to 2.40:1.00, the highest level since 08 Oct at 2.74:1.00. Similarly, we saw managed-by-money players in ICE LS gasoil futures were hesitant to add length this week, as we started to see weakness in the front gasoil spreads and cracks. We saw prod/merc players moderately increase their long positions by 7.2mb (+2.45%) w/w, potentially an indicator of refiner hedging.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Climbs to $72.60/bbl

Feb’25 Brent crude futures inched up from $72.42/bbl at 07:00 GMT this morning to $72.60/bbl at 10:55 GMT (at time of writing). Crude oil prices saw support while Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November, up from 50.3 in October, and Israel continued to bomb Lebanon today despite last week’s ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, on 30 Nov, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated it hit a new production high for crude oil and condensates, pumping 1.39mb/d according to Libya Herald. In the news today, Poland has shut down a section of the Druzhba pipeline after detecting a leak, as per Bloomberg. The pipeline operator PERN claimed the leak did not affect supply to customers, as oil supplies continued through a second branch “whose technical capabilities fully cover the volume needs”, according to Reuters. In other news, a Bloomberg report revealed that a broadening of US sanctions on tankers hauling Iranian crude has slowed the delivery of oil from Iran to China, citing ship-tracking data. However, no estimate was given for the total potential disruption to Iran’s crude oil flows. Finally, India’s gasoline consumption jumped 9% in November y/y, as Indian gasoline sales hit 3.42 million metric tons, according to the Economic Times. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.23/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Strengthens Marginally To $72.30/bbl

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, falling from $73.05/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $72.45/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). EIA data for the week to 22 Nov showed a larger-than-expected draw of 1.84mb in US crude oil inventories, compared to a build of 0.5mb the prior week. In the news today, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the US today to halt a “spiral of escalation” over Ukraine, stating “you mustn’t supply Kyiv with everything they want”, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS quoted an official saying Moscow was working to put its Sarmat ICBM, part of its strategic nuclear arsenal, on combat duty. In other news, the Kazakh Energy Ministry has proposed widening the current six-month ban on fuel exports to gasoline, jet fuel and bitumen, starting January 2025, according to Interfax. Finally, Prax is continuing to work toward buying Shell’s minority stake in the Schwedt oil refinery in east Germany, as per Bloomberg. The shareholder structure of the Schwedt refinery has been complicated by the involvement of Russia’s Rosneft, whose stake was seized by the German government. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $1.68/bbl, respectively.

Fuel Oil Report – HSFO and VLSFO Meeting in the Middle

The narrowing scrubber spread was the key theme as there was diverging sentiment between the HSFO and VLSFO complexes, with the former turning bullish and the latter turning bearish. This is reflected in the narrowing of the Hi-5s (VLSFO vs HSFO contracts), with the Dec’24 Sing Hi-5 (Sing 0.5 vs Sing 380) falling from $110/mt on 25 Nov to $86/mt by 28 Nov. The price action was likely exacerbated by stop-outs, especially with open interest in both the Dec’24 Sing 0.5 and Sing 380 contracts sitting above their respective 5-year maximum levels. However, the current price trends in both complexes are overextended from a technical perspective, so it remains to be seen how long they will be sustained.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Futures Falls to $72.08/bbl

The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, falling from $72.77/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $72.08/bbl at 10:55 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment as markets weighed up the prospect of ample supply heading into 2025 and continuing uncertainties surrounding demand outlook, as per Reuters. In the news today, Israeli forces have killed at least 42 people in the Gaza strip accused of ceasefire violations, as bombing intensifies according to Al Jazeera. In other news, Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told Reuters that Ottawa must make sure the Trump administration understands how their plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports would be counterproductive, not only for oil but also as America benefits from Canadian uranium and hydro exports to the US.

Trader Meeting Notes: We’re Thankful for Oil Derivatives

Happy Thanksgiving! As American liquidity dries up in favour of stuffed turkeys, OPEC+ knows what it is not thankful for: the situation they’ve been placed in vis-à-vis bringing their crude oil barrels back into the market.

European Window: Brent Inches Down To $72.75/bbl

The Feb’25 Brent futures contract declined marginally from $72.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT to a touch under $72.75/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Russian President Putin said Moscow launched more than 90 missiles and 100 drones that hit 17 targets in Ukraine, leaving more than 1 million people without power…

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Recovers to $73.40/bbl

After Jan’25 Brent futures initially fell from $72.80/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $72.40/bbl at 08:15 GMT this morning, the Jan’25 contract made a recovery to $73.30/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Ukraine’s energy minister said the country’s power infrastructure was “under massive enemy attack”, after a nationwide air raid alert was declared due to incoming missiles. In other news, Asia’s crude oil imports are expected to increase to 26.42mb/d in November, up marginally from October’s 26.11mb/d and 26.24 mb/d in September, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. However, from the period January to November 2024, average Asian crude oil imports are estimated to have declined y/y by 370kb/d. Finally, OPEC+ has postponed its online meeting to discuss oil production strategy from 1 Dec to 5 Dec. OPEC’s secretariat stated the delay was because several ministers will attend the meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Kuwait on 1 Dec, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.54/bbl and $1.82/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Bears To Make A Return?

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

European Window: Brent Weakens To $72.45/bbl

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, falling from $73.05/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $72.45/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). EIA data for the week to 22 Nov showed a larger-than-expected draw of 1.84mb in US crude oil inventories, compared to a build of 0.5mb the prior week. In the news today, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the US today to halt a “spiral of escalation” over Ukraine, stating “you mustn’t supply Kyiv with everything they want”, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS quoted an official saying Moscow was working to put its Sarmat ICBM, part of its strategic nuclear arsenal, on combat duty. In other news, the Kazakh Energy Ministry has proposed widening the current six-month ban on fuel exports to gasoline, jet fuel and bitumen, starting January 2025, according to Interfax. Finally, Prax is continuing to work toward buying Shell’s minority stake in the Schwedt oil refinery in east Germany, as per Bloomberg. The shareholder structure of the Schwedt refinery has been complicated by the involvement of Russia’s Rosneft, whose stake was seized by the German government. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $1.68/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent lnches Up to $73/bbl

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning amid rangebound price action, increasing from $72.90/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $73.05/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Prices saw a brief dip to around $72.70/bbl at 09:10 GMT before rising to this morning’s high of $73.30/bbl at 09:35 GMT. In the news today, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire approved on Wednesday has taken effect with no reports of early violations of the 60-day truce, according to Bloomberg…