Dubai Market Report – Dubai Bling
Dubai Bling – Two weeks ago, the prompt Brent/Dubai appeared to be hitting a bottom at -14c/bbl with players anticipating a recovery upwards in the near term.
Dubai Bling – Two weeks ago, the prompt Brent/Dubai appeared to be hitting a bottom at -14c/bbl with players anticipating a recovery upwards in the near term.
The Dated market has been inundated with weakness. The volatility that we have been seeing in the physical diff has continued and the phys diff reached lows of almost -$1/bbl on May 14.
The naphtha complex has experienced an extremely mixed past fortnight, showing major signs of weakness in the first week before seeing a major influx of strength in the second week, with the prompt MOPJ spread rising from lows of $5.70/mt on May 15 to break $10/mt by May 17.
The July Brent futures flat price has had a very shaky morning, sitting at $83.30/bbl around 05:00 BST, before bouncing rapidly between $83.30/bbl handles and $82.80/bbl handles.
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The July Brent futures flat price has had a volatile afternoon, initially falling from $83.85/bbl at 12:00 BST down to the afternoon’s low of $83.25/bbl at 14:05 BST, before rallying aggressively to a daily high of $84.45/bbl at 15:05 BST.
Technical indicators indicate an oversold RSI for Brent, ICE gasoil and RBOB gasoline futures alongside flat price that traded below all three contracts’ respective 20-day simple moving averages, flagging bearish short-term momentum. Moreover, Bollinger bands have now widened for the RBOB futures, signalling increased volatility in the contract.
For the week to May 14, we saw differing positions adopted by both prod/merc players and money managers across the two benchmarks.
The July Brent futures flat price has shown signs of weakness this morning following a fairly strong overnight period. Having risen from $84.05/bbl at 06:00 BST to a daily high of $84.45/bbl at 08:00 BST, the prompt contract has since seen a downturn, falling as low as $83.65/bbl as of 11:05 BST (time of writing).
The prompt Brent futures flat price strengthened to $84.30/bbl at the start of the week to May 20 (as of 08:15 BST), supported by political uncertainty in vital oil-producing economies in the Middle East. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, previously seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border.
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The July Brent futures flat price has had a spiky afternoon, which it began by falling to $83.10/bbl at 12:40 BST, from which it rapidly rose to the afternoon’s high of $83.75/bbl at 14:10 BST.
HSFO saw a contrasting performance in Europe and Asia which allowed the 380 E/W to rally significantly.
July Brent futures saw a relatively rangebound week, and remains supported around the $83/bbl handles – where it has been trading since the beginning of May.