Short July 92/MOPJ 92 has been struggling to keep up with the recent strength in RBOB and there is still a firm bullish trend in naphtha. We think this will continue into the end of the month so we expect
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The September Brent futures contract has seen a downward trend all afternoon, softening from nearly $85/bbl at 11:35 BST to below $84/bbl at 14:40 BST.
The September Brent futures flat price has been well-supported this morning following an earlier decline.
On 17 June, the world went to sleep with the physical differential still in sub-zero territory at -30c/bbl and woke to a whole new regime with the physical diff bid above 1c/bbl.
The September Brent Futures flat price has had a fairly flat afternoon, trading between $85.30/bbl and $86/bbl.
The July ’24 EBOB crack hit a low of $14.10/bbl on June 12, establishing a floor through June 17 amid low liquidity. Heavy refiner selling peaked on June 24 with over 280kb of July’24sold. On June 18, RBBR found support at $18.50/bbl, prompting some spread buying despite a quiet market.
The September Brent Futures contract experienced a weak start this morning, opening around $85/bbl at 09:00 BST, dropping to a low of $84.74/bbl by 11:00 BST, before slightly recovering to $85.86/bbl at the time of writing (11:15 BST).
Long Q3 EBOB Crack After initial weakness this morning hanging over from yesterday, we think it’s a good opportunity to try and fade that weakness and take an opposing position. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The August Brent Futures flat price has picked up strength this afternoon following a brief dip to $84.80/bbl at 14:20 BST.
Technical indicators showed major strength in both crude and products this week, following Brent’s rally to above $85/bbl. Brent, gasoil, and RBOB futures all saw their RSIs hover just below overbought territory at 65, 68, and 64, respectively. Bollinger
Technical fluff that has propped up Brent, thanks to a certain pair of hot hands in the North Sea, will likely
prove unsustainable.
Too close to the sun? The prompt Brent futures flat price contract recorded great strength last week. The contract began the week at $84.25/bbl and rallied past the $86/bbl handle on 21 June – where it met resistance. We now see the contract hovering around $85.30/bbl at 08:30 BST (time of writing), although we anticipate short-term bearishness to take the benchmark crude futures to $83-85/bbl by Friday. This expectation emerges out of three key factors:
