Lucky Number 85 Price action in September Brent crude futures was resilient this week, oscillating around the $85/bbl handle. Brent came off to $83.50/bbl on 16 July before ascending above $85/bbl on 17 July, settling around that level in the
The September Brent futures contract surpassed the $85/bbl handle again this morning, sitting at $85.30/bbl at 09:00 BST, but simmered off to $84.90/bbl by 11:25 BST (time of writing)….
Long Aug/Oct 3.5% Barge Over the last couple of days, we have seen Aug/Oct fall from $19.50 to $13.50. We’re seeing a shift in sentiment this morning at barge cracks, and spreads are being well-bid with little sell side interest
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God bless America; firing up WTI spreads like an AR and waking up in the morning on Wednesday and buying the hell out of Brent, flipping pricing like Vance’s opinion on Trump.
The September Brent futures contract strengthened back to the $85/bbl handle around 14:20 BST before again weakening to $84.40/bbl at 15:45 BST. However, the benchmark crude futures contract found support at this level and climbed to $85.30/bbl as of 17:10 BST (time of writing)…..
The September Brent Futures has seen a weaker morning, after rising to $85.80/bbl at 08:00 BST, the contract corrected downwards to a low of $84.96/bbl at 10:30 BST, and is trading at $85.06/bbl at the time of writing (11:05 BST). Of particular note in price action were the moves in spreads, with WTI/Brent Futures only discounting -$3.60/bbl, contrasting -$4.00/bbl yesterday morning, as WTI prompt spreads firmed up faster than Brent.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The Sep Brent futures contract strengthened this evening, climbing from $83.70/bbl at 11:20 BST to $85.10/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).
The US LST vs Far East propane (LST/FEI) arb weakened to -$220/mt this fortnight after initially rallying to -$200/mt at the start of the month. This weakness came despite LST/FEI buying, highlighting weakness in US LST propane.
The September Brent futures flat price has a mixed morning, ticking down from $83.65/bbl to a low of $83.45/bbl by 07:30 BST, before rallying to $84.10/bbl by 08:55 and then subsequently falling back down to $83.65/bbl as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).
A fortnight of two halves in Brent/Dubai, encapsulating the market’s duality in the year-to-date. The first week was relatively rangebound as prices hovered around -10c/bbl, with volumes low due to the US holiday. As Brent and WTI rallied, Dubai did not follow up as aggressively. This resulted in a massive rally where Aug jumped from -10c/bbl to +40c/bbl in a week, with the banks and funds being the buy-side aggressors.
The September Brent futures had a mixed afternoon, initially falling from $84.05/bbl to $83.35/bbl by 13:10 BST, its lowest level since 18 June, before it then rallied back up to the afternoon’s high of $84.30/bbl at 16:20 BST.
We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.
The Dated market has retained its strength well; although there was some weakness from a sell-off in a flat price. There is good buying in CFDs and rolls from trade houses, although liquidity can be thin.
