The Paris Olympics are in full swing, with Celine Dion’s opening ceremony rendition of ‘L’Hymne à l’amour’ proving to be an even greater performance than that of European propane this week…
The October Brent futures flat price continued to trade at the elevated $81.50/bbl level before sharply declining at 15:00 BST by over $1/bbl before finding support in the low $80s, printing $80.17/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing)….
The October Brent futures flat price has been unsettled this morning trading in an $81/bbl handle.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Welcome to our Live Blog of what is driving oil and other markets throughout the day. If you hear otherwise, let us know at insight@onyxcapitaladvisory.com
Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges On a technical perspective on SEP/OCT Barges, Price is now trading below the lower Bollinger band, and also below the lower RSI, indicating that its trading in the oversold territory. We have observed that majority of
The US LST vs Far East propane (LST/FEI) arb weakened to -$220/mt this fortnight after initially rallying to -$200/mt at the start of the month. This weakness came despite LST/FEI buying, highlighting weakness in US LST propane.
The October Brent futures contract remained rangebound this afternoon, falling from $80.35/bbl at 14:00 BST to below $80/bbl at 15:45 BST to finally rise to $80.60/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing)
The October Brent futures flat price has strengthened significantly this morning, rising from $78.90/bbl at 04:00 BST to $79.70/bbl by 07:55 BST, before retracing down slightly then rallying again to $80.10/bbl by 10:20 BST.
Short Aug Nap E/W Expecting a continuation of weakness as the E/W goes into pricing, driven by stronger Europe cracks and a run of poor economic data from China affecting perceived demand
Brent/Dubai has seen a remarkable fortnight, with the soon-to-be-Bal Aug Brent/Dubai rallying above $1/bbl on 26 July. However, we now see cracks in this rally, with the contract softening to $0.80/bbl on 30 July.
The October Brent futures flat price has come off again this afternoon, falling from $79/bbl at 12:00 BST to $78.10/bbl by 14:55 BST and subsequently trading in a range between $77.95/bbl and $78.45/bbl.
We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.
Despite bearish fundamentals in the broader crude market, Dated Brent saw a supported performance with the physical differential maintained above $1/bbl. This comes on the back of supply tightness out of the US and aggressive physical buying from Chevron and Equinor, implying prompt tightness.
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
