Reports

European Window: Brent surges above $81/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price accelerated its rally on Monday afternoon, cruising past $81/bbl and trading at $81.18/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Price action has extended last week’s gains, with US recession fears easing and Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, and potentially supported by short covering flows. The market awaits response, while on Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region following Ukraine’s incursion into sovereign Russian territory. In OPEC’s August MOMR…

Futures Report: Fancy a Bull-ini?

Last week, the Oct’24 Brent futures witnessed a significant sell-off, following which sentiment recovered. The benchmark crude futures contract went from $76.30/bbl on 06 Aug to $80.40/bbl on 12 Aug (at the time of writing).

CFTC Weekly: The CTA Bears Go All-In

It was a bearish week for global crude benchmarks (Brent + WTI), which also suffered from the fallout from the sell-off in global risk assets following a weak US employment data report and the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade. Notably, the significant increase in short positions across the key futures benchmarks imply that the recent sell-off was exacerbated by fresh CTA selling, in addition to the liquidation of length by discretionary and risk-parity funds.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Just Shy of $80.40/bbl

The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).

European Window: Brent flirts with $80/bbl

The Oct’24 Brent futures witnessed a largely rangebound afternoon, with the flat price first falling from $79.50/bbl at 13:10 BST to $78.85/bbl around 15:10 BST, only to firm up to $79.70/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).

Fuel Oil Report – A Ship Show

In HSFO over the past fortnight, we saw price action appear fairly unsettled alongside enduring relative Asian strength.

CFTC Predictor:  Exit, Pursued by a Bear

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

Early Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Holds Above $78.50/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price saw a supported performance on Wednesday morning, climbing by over $1 since 08:30 BST from $76.40/bbl to $77.50/bbl by 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price action is testing the $77.50/bbl resistance level, where the market failed to break on two separate occasions on the 2nd and 6th of August. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s oil demand rose by 7.4% y/y to 19.652 million tonnes in July. In contrast…

European Window: Brent Rallies over $78.50/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price saw better support on Tuesday afternoon, finding a springboard of $75.60/bbl before gapping up to $77/bbl before coming off to $76.62/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). The US Department of Energy announced two solicitations to purchase oil for the SPR, 1.5mb for delivery into the Bayou Choctaw site and 2.0mb for the Bryan Mound site, both in January 2025. Libya’s NOC said on Tuesday that it is gradually reducing production from the Sharara field, citing force majeure due to protests in the area.

Daily Trade Ideas: 07/08/2024

Long sep dfl After weakening down to lows of around -13c yesterday, we think there is opportunity to look to fade the weakness and take a small long position today on the sep dfl Short Sep 380 crack After seeing

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rallies to $77.50/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price saw a supported performance on Wednesday morning, climbing by over $1 since 08:30 BST from $76.40/bbl to $77.50/bbl by 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price action is testing the $77.50/bbl resistance level, where the market failed to break on two separate occasions on the 2nd and 6th of August. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s oil demand rose by 7.4% y/y to 19.652 million tonnes in July. In contrast…

Dated Brent Report – Totsa, It’s Hammer Time

All hell broke loose this week as the Bears came in with a bang. The Dated Brent market was not immune to the chaos that ran amok global financial markets at large. The poor US jobs reading was the tinderbox that catalysed the worldwide sell-off, and a bloodbath ensued. For our readers outside of Japan, it is one less bowl of ramen or can of Strong Zero on your upcoming trip to the land of the rising sun as investors unwound their carry trades, prompting a mass exodus from the Nikkei.

Gasoline Report: Arb-n’t you glad you didn’t short?

The gasoline market continues to float without direction, riddled with illiquidity as players lament and let go of all hope for the summer. EBOB cracks have been particularly hit this fortnight due to Europe losing the New York Harbor as a demand outlet as demand for gasoline becomes increasingly muted.