Reports

Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price weakened this morning from $73.13/bbl at 07:00 BST to $72.50/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). After last week’s upward trend, prices are relatively steady amid US output concerns, countering bearish sentiment caused by lagging Chinese demand. In the news today, Fed funds futures show markets are now pricing in a 69% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points, as per data by Reuters. A lower interest rate could potentially lift oil demand by supporting economic growth. In other news, the UK government is intensifying its crackdown on the oil trading empire of Hossein Shamkhani, the son of an advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran. The UK is continuing to scrutinise the business practices of London-based Nest Wise Trading, owned by Shamkhani, and has warned Shamkhani’s company with immediate dissolution due to its role in trading both Iranian and Russian crude. This comes as part of a broader crackdown in the UK and US on entities believed to be evading oil-trading restrictions. Finally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is headed to Egypt today to prepare a proposal to present to Israel and Hamas for a cease-fire deal and release of hostages. Blinken, however, has no public plans to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the trip. The visit comes amid Israel threatening to escalate conflict against Hezbollah. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.57/bbl and $1.41/bbl, respectively.

Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price found support this morning after a relatively quiet night, trading at $72.40/bbl at 07:00 BST before it saw resistance at $72.75/bbl around 10:50 BST and eased off to the $72.70/bbl level at 11:20 BST (time of writing). In the news today, the ECB has cut rates by 25 basis points, as was expected, for a second time in three months, to 3.5%. President Lagarde has said the ECB is determined to reach its inflation target of 2% over the medium term, however, has not yet specified an exact time frame for this goal. In other news, six Exxon and Shell refineries in Louisiana have resumed operation amid little significant damage from Hurricane Francine, as per Reuters. Production outages in the US Gulf Coast caused by the storm stood at 730 kb/d as of 12 Sep. Finally, Libya’s political factions have not reached a final deal on the central bank yet, the UN mission says. Sadiq al-Kabir, ousted governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), told Reuters that international banks have suspended all transactions with Libya. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.64/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.

Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price found support this morning after a relatively quiet night, trading at $72.40/bbl at 07:00 BST before it saw resistance at $72.75/bbl around 10:50 BST and eased off to the $72.70/bbl level at 11:20 BST (time of writing). In the news today, the ECB has cut rates by 25 basis points, as was expected, for a second time in three months, to 3.5%. President Lagarde has said the ECB is determined to reach its inflation target of 2% over the medium term, however, has not yet specified an exact time frame for this goal. In other news, six Exxon and Shell refineries in Louisiana have resumed operation amid little significant damage from Hurricane Francine, as per Reuters. Production outages in the US Gulf Coast caused by the storm stood at 730 kb/d as of 12 Sep. Finally, Libya’s political factions have not reached a final deal on the central bank yet, the UN mission says. Sadiq al-Kabir, ousted governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), told Reuters that international banks have suspended all transactions with Libya. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.64/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.

The November Brent Futures contract has seen stronger price action this morning, reaching a peak around $71.86/bbl at 08:30 BST before retracing slightly and again rallying up to trade at $71.83/bbl at the time of writing (11:20 BST), as major producers extend production cuts and evacuations in the Gulf of Mexico. In recent developments, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported that 46% of the Gulf of Mexico’s 371 manned platforms and 60% of personnel from five rigs have been evacuated, with four rigs moved off location due to Hurricane Francine. The loss of production amounts to approximately 675kb/d, and contributed to prices rising this morning, especially with Libyan production remaining largely offline but nonetheless despite bearish EIA data emerging yesterday. In other news, Saudi Aramco has signed additional agreements with China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Group, advancing talks on refining and petrochemical sector cooperation. Aramco signed a Development Framework Agreement with Rongsheng, exploring the joint development of Saudi Aramco Jubail Refinery Company (SASREF) and potential cross-investments. Rongsheng may acquire a 50% stake in SASREF, while Aramco could acquire 50% in Rongsheng’s Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical Co. Ltd. At the time of writing, the Nov/Dec and Nov/May’25 Brent spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.41/bbl, respectively.