Reports

After selling off overnight to around $72.25/bbl following Israel’s Friday night retaliation against Iran for their 01 Oct attack, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract has seen further weakness this morning, moving from $72.55/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $71.10/bbl at 10:20 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices declined as Israel’s attack left Iranian nuclear and oil infrastructure unscathed, easing fears of a potential supply disruption. In the news today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran will “use all available tools” to respond to the Israeli attack on Iran’s military infrastructure, as per Reuters. In other news, India’s Bharat Petroleum has stated that its Russian oil intake for crude processing has fallen to 34% between July and September this year due to maintenance of units at its Bina and Kochi refineries. The state-run company has a production capacity of about 706kb/d across its three refineries in India, according to a Reuters report. Finally, according to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, Eni and BP have resumed exploration in the Libyan Ghadames Basin, where onshore drilling has been halted since 2014. Meanwhile, Repsol is preparing to restart drilling in the Murzuq Basin, and OMV is to begin operations in the Sirte Basin in the coming weeks. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.85/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, trading at $75.73/bbl at 07:00 BST and moving up to $76.50/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Price was supported amid intensifying regional conflict in the Middle East and reports of North Korean troops ready to aid Russia in Ukraine. In the news today, Israel has launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the city of Homs, killing one soldier and injuring seven others, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin said today that the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war, in a statement made at a meeting of the BRICS+ group in Russia. In other news, Transocean is in talks to merge with rival offshore drilling contractor Seadrill, looking to capitalize on the boom in deepwater oil exploration, according to Bloomberg. After the announcement, US shares of Seadrill jumped 10% while Transocean shares were up 3.7%. Finally, refiners on the US Gulf Coast have been increasingly turning to Latin American heavy crude, with Mexican state-owned Pemex and Valero Energy both buying Colombian grades, as per Bloomberg. This came as the Trans Mountain line diverted Canadian oil to Asia, with US refiners seeing their usual supply thinning. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.86/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, trading at $75.73/bbl at 07:00 BST and moving up to $76.50/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Price was supported amid intensifying regional conflict in the Middle East and reports of North Korean troops ready to aid Russia in Ukraine. In the news today, Israel has launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the city of Homs, killing one soldier and injuring seven others, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin said today that the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war, in a statement made at a meeting of the BRICS+ group in Russia. In other news, Transocean is in talks to merge with rival offshore drilling contractor Seadrill, looking to capitalize on the boom in deepwater oil exploration, according to Bloomberg. After the announcement, US shares of Seadrill jumped 10% while Transocean shares were up 3.7%. Finally, refiners on the US Gulf Coast have been increasingly turning to Latin American heavy crude, with Mexican state-owned Pemex and Valero Energy both buying Colombian grades, as per Bloomberg. This came as the Trans Mountain line diverted Canadian oil to Asia, with US refiners seeing their usual supply thinning. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.86/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, trading at $75.93/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to $75.10/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). After the release of API figures yesterday evening, showing US crude oil stocks rose far above market expectations of 0.3mb up to 1.64mb, price has declined further amid anticipation of EIA data releasing at 15:30 BST today, with the market expecting a 700kb build in US crude inventories. In the news today, Israeli strikes across Gaza have killed 20 people, with Israel stepping up their operation following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israel today to use this opportunity to end the war in Gaza, stating Israel should be looking to bring home remaining Gaza hostages and agree to a ceasefire. In other news, India’s Finance Ministry are considering a proposal to scrap the windfall tax on domestic crude oil production due to falling international crude prices, as per Reuters. Finally, Saudi Arabia’s economy is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2025 partly due to OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in December, a Reuters poll of economists showed. This would be Saudi Arabia’s highest rate of growth in three years, with only 1.3% growth expected for 2024. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.69/bbl, respectively.