Short Oct/Nov 0.5 sing We have been seeing some selling in the front of the sing LSFO. The low appetite from China is reflected in July’s crude throughput, which has fallen to a 21-month low. The RSI indicate overbought with
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price fell this afternoon, from $81.14/bbl at 14.15 BST to $80.20/bbl at 17.30 BST (time of writing), as there were quite volatile movements this afternoon, especially post-EIA stats. The EIA inventory report revealed US crude stocks increased by 1.357mb, compared to the forecast 2mb draw. Stocks at Cushing OK, however, saw a draw of 1.665mb. Both gasoline and distillates saw a larger draw than forecast. US gasoline inventories saw a draw of 2.894mb compared to the forecast of 1.42mb, and distillate stocks fell by 1.673mb compared to the 250kb build forecast as refinery utilisation increased unexpectedly by 1%. Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved an Israeli delegation to Doha, Qatar, for talks on a hostage deal and Gaza ceasefire, along with the negotiation mandate. Iraq has signed preliminary deals for 13 oil and gas exploration blocks, potentially boosting output by 750,000 barrels of crude and 850 million cubic feet of gas. This sixth licensing round focuses on increasing natural gas production to reduce reliance on Iranian imports for power generation. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.66/bbl respectively.
We saw US Mont Belvieu (LST) propane spreads first plummet at the start of the month and then subsequently rally.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The October Brent futures flat price saw a choppy but ultimately bearish Wednesday morning, rallying to highs of $81.41/bbl by 10:07 BST which was followed by a rapid descent below $81/bbl, trading at $80.76/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). The 5.2mb crude draw, as reported by the API, has supported prices, but traders are awaiting confirmation from EIA stats. Markets are expecting a 0.2% m-o-m US core CPI reading today, which would support a Fed rate cut in September.
Long Oct/Nov 380 Oil stocks in Fujairah have dropped to a 10-month low. Plus demand falling after peak summer power generation for air conditioning. Oct/Nov price has fallen from $8.75 a few days ago and this trade suggestion is to
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The Dated Brent market saw an impressive rally and was buoyed to even further heights after a very brief foray into contango territory. To borrow from the IEA, the market saw “Olympic levels of volatility” in the past month. Demonstrating this, the physical differential fell from $1.14/bbl on 2 August to -$0.19/bbl on 6 August before rising to $1.70/bbl on 12 August, reaching its highest level since February.
The October Brent futures flat price trended lower on Tuesday afternoon, falling by over $1 after hitting resistance at the $82/bbl level, reaching lows of $80.62/bbl at 17:07 BST, and trading at $80.81/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The fall in prices can be attributed to a fading geopolitical risk premia on the decreasing likelihood of an imminent attack by Iran against Israel, while the IEA report released earlier projected a grim forecast on global oil demand growth relative to OPEC projections.
We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.
The strength emerged from a pitiful Dubai complex riddled with selling flow on the back of bearish macroeconomic data and the sell-off within wider risk assets
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
