Reports

Amid choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract weakened a touch from $79.65/bbl at 07:00 BST to $79.43/bbl at 11:50 BST (time of writing). After briefly trading above the $80/bbl level yesterday, the contract saw less support alongside increasing Libyan output and changing risk of regional escalation of war in the Middle East, as traders continue to wait for Israel’s potential retaliation on Iran. However, downside pressure was limited by production shut-ins in the US Gulf Coast caused by Hurricane Milton. In the news today, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi has warned Israel against any potential attack on Iranian infrastructure, stating that any Israeli incursion would be met with a stronger retaliation. In other news, Hurricane Milton, now a Category 5 storm, is expected to make landfall tomorrow in the Tampa Bay area of Florida. Chevron has shut in its Blind Faith platform in response, whilst the rest of its Gulf of Mexico assets remain operational. Finally, China has said that is ‘fully confident’ in reaching its annual growth target of 5%, according to Reuters. Zheng Shanjie, the Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission announced a government plan to issue $28.3 billion in advance budget spending from next year, however, to the disappointment of investors seeking a greater fiscal stimulus. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.51/bbl and $2.25/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract firmed up this morning, strengthening from $77.80/bbl at 07:00 BST to $79.85/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement amid US strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen over the weekend, alongside a Hamas missile attack on Tel Aviv this morning, on the 7 October anniversary of the Hamas attack. In the news today, after Israel hit Beirut on Sunday with the heaviest night of airstrikes yet, Hamas has fired missiles past Israeli defences into Tel Aviv, triggering air raid sirens according to Reuters. In addition, Hezbollah rockets have targeted a military base south of Haifa, Israel’s third largest city, reportedly wounding eight people. In other news, on Friday, the US military said it carried out 15 strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Central Command, which oversees US forces in the Middle East, said the attacks were aimed at limiting Houthi offensive capabilities, as per Reuters. Finally, the explosion of an oil tanker near the international airport of Karachi, Pakistan, has been determined to be a terrorist act according to the regional internal affairs minister. A Chinese Embassy statement has said that a convoy carrying Chinese staff of the local Port Qasim Electric Power Company was engulfed in the blast, believed to have killed two workers from China. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $2.66/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strong support this morning, trading at $77.50/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to around $78.94 at 11:45 BST (time of writing). Price action began moving upward shortly after 08:00 BST amid Israeli airstrikes in Beirut targeting Hezbollah leadership and growing anticipation of a potential attack by Israel on Iranian oil infrastructure. In the news today, Iran’s empty oil tankers previously sitting at an anchorage area near Kharg Island have now left, as per ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Libya has restarted oil production as the two rival government factions reached an agreement on the governorship of the Central Bank. According to Reuters, Libyan output was 1.2mb/d before the production halt in late August at the Sharara, El Feel, and Essider oilfields. Finally, Spain’s crude oil imports from Venezuela have reached 2 million tons in total this year, just shy of the 2.1 million ton 15-year high. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $2.43/bbl, respectively.