Reports

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading from $75.05/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $75.39/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have been supported amid potential for Hurricane Rafael to disrupt 4mb/d of oil production in the US Gulf Coast, according to Reuters. In the news today, Russian oil and gas revenue has jumped 57% m/m in October to $12.35 billion, as per Russian finance ministry data. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report shows Russia’s seaborne crude weekly exports for the week to 3 Nov dropped by 530kb/d, the biggest decline since early June. This came as Russia made no shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk and only one shipment from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. In other news, France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot is expected travel to Israel on Wednesday to work towards a diplomatic end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Barrot stated France would work with whoever wins the US election and that the US “plays an essential role in ending the Israeli-Arab conflict”. Finally, trading firms are projected to deliver an unusually large volume of about 5mb of Middle East crude oil to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) this month, as per Reuters. Vitol are to deliver the most crude to INE, about 3mb, including about 840kb of Abu Dhabi Murban crude and 2mb of Iraqi Basra Medium crude. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.43/bbl and $1.65/bbl, respectively.

After rallying at market open this week from $72.90/bbl on 01 Nov to $74.35/bbl last night, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract showed steady support this morning, climbing from $74.40/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.70/bbl just after 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated amid an OPEC+ decision on Sunday to extend its output cut of 2.2mb/d by another month, initially planning to increase production in December. In the news today, according to a Reuters report, Israel has officially notified the UN that it is cancelling the agreement that regulated relations with the UN relief organization for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) since 1967, fuelling concerns of a worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza. This came as Palestinian medics claimed Israeli airstrikes killed at least 31 people in the Gaza strip on Sunday. In other news, China’s refining output is set to fall to 14.7mb/d this quarter on thin margins and weak demand, in addition to maintaining lower run rates in Q1’25, as per Reuters. Finally, Eni has sold $1 billion worth of upstream offshore assets in Alaska to US private company Hilcorp, planning to raise €8 billion in net proceeds between 2024-2027 to fund the growth of its low-carbon units. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.42/bbl, respectively.