Technical indicators show that Brent futures saw RSI correct from the overbought territory whilst the Bollinger bands have maintained their width despite lower price action, indicating consistent volatility levels.
For the week to Apr 16, we saw contrasting positions adopted by money managers across the two benchmarks.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has witnessed a mixed morning. Price action initially fell around $1 to lows of $85.81/bbl at 08:20 BST, before recovering to print at $86.72/bbl at 10:55 BST.
The Jun Brent futures flat price witnessed a sharp rally last Friday (April 19), surging back into the $90/bbl region before easing off to $87.20/bbl handles the following evening.
Prompt Brent futures flat price has witnessed a quieter afternoon period, albeit a stronger one as prices have risen by around $1. Price action fell to lows of $86.22/bbl at 12:15 BST, but at this level participants were happy to add some length as prices retraced higher to $87.67/bbl at 16:05 BST.
This fortnight in HSFO saw incredible bearishness in Europe turn to bullish sentiment amid a news on a reinstatement of sanctions on Venezuelan crude.
Jun Brent futures flat price witnessed another bout of volatility overnight with price action rallying from below $87/bbl at 01:25 BST to $90.55/bbl at 03:45 BST before ultimately easing off to $86.75/bbl come 11:10 BST
Prompt Brent futures flat price has witnessed a mixed afternoon period. Prices initially rebounded from low $86/bbl lows in the morning to reach $87.64/bbl at 14:00 BST.
Last week ended with Brent finally breaking into $91/bbl and briefly hitting $92/bbl as the world grappled with the eventuality of Iran striking Israel, following an attack by Israel on Iran’s embassy in Damascus.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
