The prompt Brent futures flat price strengthened to $84.30/bbl at the start of the week to May 20 (as of 08:15 BST), supported by political uncertainty in vital oil-producing economies in the Middle East. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, previously seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border.
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The July Brent futures flat price has had a spiky afternoon, which it began by falling to $83.10/bbl at 12:40 BST, from which it rapidly rose to the afternoon’s high of $83.75/bbl at 14:10 BST.
HSFO saw a contrasting performance in Europe and Asia which allowed the 380 E/W to rally significantly.
July Brent futures saw a relatively rangebound week, and remains supported around the $83/bbl handles – where it has been trading since the beginning of May.
The July Brent futures flat price has had a mixed morning, first seeing a rapid uptick from $83.50/bbl at 06:50 BST to $83.85/bbl by 08:05 BST, before softening to $83.15/bbl by 10:40 BST. After this, it has retraced upwards to $83.30/bbl handles, where it currently resides as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).
Markets have been echoing the early fellowship for much of this week as they struggled to establish a clear and comprehensive narrative.
The July Brent future flat price has been well-supported this afternoon, initially rising from $82.60/bbl handles at 12:00 BST to $83.75/bbl by 14:35 BST.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The July Brent futures flat price has just ticked down this morning from a high of $83.25/bbl at 08:05 BST to $82.40/bbl handles at 10:55 BST, where it still currently resides as of 11:10 BST.
