Supplementary Report: Up-Dated? More Like Down Dated
The Dated market has been inundated with weakness. The volatility that we have been seeing in the physical diff has continued and the phys diff reached lows of almost -$1/bbl on May 14.
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Naphtha Report: Woke Up From A Nap(htha)
The naphtha complex has experienced an extremely mixed past fortnight, showing major signs of weakness in the first week before seeing a major influx of strength in the second week, with the prompt MOPJ spread rising from lows of $5.70/mt on May 15 to break $10/mt by May 17.
Brent Down In $82/bbl Handles
The July Brent futures flat price has had a very shaky morning, sitting at $83.30/bbl around 05:00 BST, before bouncing rapidly between $83.30/bbl handles and $82.80/bbl handles.
Harry Blotter and the Prisoner of Alphaban
With another week comes another selection of trade ideas from Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
Daily Trade Idea: 21/05/2024
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Brent Back to Mid $83/bbl Handles
The July Brent futures flat price has had a volatile afternoon, initially falling from $83.85/bbl at 12:00 BST down to the afternoon’s low of $83.25/bbl at 14:05 BST, before rallying aggressively to a daily high of $84.45/bbl at 15:05 BST.
Futures Report: Oil – Back to the Futures
Technical indicators indicate an oversold RSI for Brent, ICE gasoil and RBOB gasoline futures alongside flat price that traded below all three contracts’ respective 20-day simple moving averages, flagging bearish short-term momentum. Moreover, Bollinger bands have now widened for the RBOB futures, signalling increased volatility in the contract.
CFTC Report: Crude No Hive of Activity
For the week to May 14, we saw differing positions adopted by both prod/merc players and money managers across the two benchmarks.
Brent Slips Below $84/bbl
The July Brent futures flat price has shown signs of weakness this morning following a fairly strong overnight period. Having risen from $84.05/bbl at 06:00 BST to a daily high of $84.45/bbl at 08:00 BST, the prompt contract has since seen a downturn, falling as low as $83.65/bbl as of 11:05 BST (time of writing).
This Week’s Target Price: $82-84/bbl
The prompt Brent futures flat price strengthened to $84.30/bbl at the start of the week to May 20 (as of 08:15 BST), supported by political uncertainty in vital oil-producing economies in the Middle East. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, previously seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border.