Daily Trade Idea: 17/06/2024
Long Jul Barge 0.5% Crack We have seen a rise in the Jul crack this morning. Although there has been good supply of LSFO recently, the market position has been getting longer according to Onyx CoT.
News
Brent Forecast: 17th June 2024
TARGET PRICE: $82-84/bbl Although we expect Brent futures to remain supported above the $80/bbl region, we hold a neutral outlook this week, with the front-month August contract to finish the week between $82/bbl and $84/bbl. This is predicated on three
European Window: Brent Hovering Below $83/bbl
The Aug Brent Futures flat price has begun to come off after a strong afternoon. The contract rose from $82.85/bbl at 12:00 BST to a high of $83.40/bbl, which it hit at 13:50 BST.
Fuel Oil Report – Barges Drifting
Overall, European HSFO has been trading sideways in the past fortnight. The July 3.5% barge crack has had a fairly rangebound week, trading between -$8/mt and -$7/mt.
Daily Trade Idea: 14/06/2024
Short Jul 0.5 EW Nigeria’s newly built Dangote refinery are activating their production of low Sulphur fuel oil which get exported to Singapore. This could weakened the east by increasing an already oversupplied market. This is also supported by the
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Sitting Comfortably Above $82/bbl
The Aug Brent Futures flat price has had a rangebound morning period, trading between $82.25/bbl and $82.45/bbl since 04:00 BST, except for a brief fall to $82.20/bbl at 05:30 BST. Price action has settled around $82.35/bbl, where it sits as of 06:00 BST (time of writing).
European Window: Brent Rallies Then Falls to Low $82/bbl Handles
The Aug Brent futures flat price saw a back-and-forth afternoon following the relatively uneventful morning. We saw a strong start with a rally at 13:00 BST spanning two hours in which the price rallied from where it started the afternoon at $81.90/bbl up to an intraday high of $83.00/bbl. However, this was short-lived, as the price then took a tumble from this high to a low of $82.15/bbl.
TMNs: What’s the Score?
Unlike England’s chances of winning Euro 2024 following an abysmal 1-0 friendly defeat to Iceland, Brent Futures have surged this week, with the prompt contract rising significantly from $77/bbl to almost $83/bbl.
CFTC Predictor: Betting On Bull…?
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Trading In $82/bbl Handles
The Aug Brent Future flat price has softened this morning following an initial period of strength. The price ticked up from $82.20/bbl handles to reach the morning’s high of $82.55/bbl at 09:15 BST, before weakening to below $82/bbl by 10:30 BST. It sits in $81.90/bbl handles as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).