News Archive

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rises to $70.60/bbl

The November Brent Futures contract has seen a stronger morning, steadily climbing to $70.84/bbl at the time of writing (11:20 BST) following the sharp sell-off yesterday, amid expectations that Hurricane Francine may disrupt oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. We noted that Brent fell yesterday amid no visible changes in fundamentals as risk aversion gripped markets; this was evidenced in gold moving higher and bond yields declining markedly. In headlines, Exxon is planning to cut production at its 523 kb/d Baton Rouge refinery to 20% ahead of Francine’s expected landfall, as reported by Reuters.

The Officials: Sub 70 Brent sends Kennie into freefall

Traders were hoping for a quiet day going into the weekend but instead they got a comatose or nearly dead oil
market. At 15:00 BST Nov Brent stood at a consolidated $73.40/bbl, slightly above its level at yesterday’s close.
Then, however, markets went into freefall. Within the hour, Brent had toppled down by almost $2/bbl, to around
$71.50/bbl. Disastrous Canadian PMIs? Americans selling off? Or just the dour macros weighing down
everyone’s souls? And then in come the Saudis, slashing their monthly OSPs across the board for October
against the preceding month’s differentials. All grades into the Med and Northwest Europe received 80c cuts. In Asia, Arab Light and Medium took a 70c and 80c hits respectively, while Heavy was slapped with a full $1 cut.

European Window: Brent Falls Below $70/bbl For First Time Since December 2021

Nov’24 Brent futures flat price has plunged below $70/bbl this afternoon for the first time since December 2021, pricing at $71.20/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching a high of $71.81/bbl at 14:30 BST, before diving down to $68.97/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The sell-off may have been exacerbated by a large number of longs stopping out, especially as prices fell below the $70/bbl psychological level. This comes amid expectations of ample supplies and demand concerns amid weak economic data out of vital economies such as China. In August, Chinese imports increased by just 0.5%, missing expectations for a 2% boost, and down from 7.2% growth a month prior. In the news today, OPEC lowered their global oil demand forecast for 2024 again from 2.11 mb/d to 2.03 mb/d. Until last month, OPEC kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023. OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 mb/d from 1.78 mb/d. Prices slid on the weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply. Meanwhile, the EIA’s forecast for Brent crude oil prices reaching $84.44/bbl in 2024 has been lowered to $82.80/bbl. Correspondingly, their forecast for 2025 has been reduced from $85.71/bbl down to $84.09/bbl. Finally, Tropical Storm Francine continues to barrel across the Gulf of Mexico and is on track to become a hurricane this week. Still, we have yet to see any robust indication of how this hurricane could impact US oil supplies. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $0.96/bbl, respectively.

Up-Dated Supplementary Report – Bears R Us

The Dated Brent market has weakened significantly this past week as physical sentiment deteriorated alongside a troubled futures market. At the time of writing, the Nov’24 Brent futures contract has fallen below $70/bbl for the first time since November 2021. Bearish factors have mounted as oil demand uncertainty and recession fears grip the market, whilst speculators are getting increasingly shorter. The bearish hysteria has filtered into the Dated Brent market, where the physical had previously been able to weather the weakness in the futures market. However, the weaker-than-expected Oct Brent futures expiry was a premonition for Dated Brent, as the physical attracted offers whilst the paper sold off.

Dubai Market Report – Light Sweet Sell-offs

Light crude, not-so-light selling. That has been the spotlight in Brent/Dubai over the past week, with the Oct’24 contract descending from over $1/bbl at the end of August to $0.50/bbl on 10 Sep (at the time of writing).

The Officials: Batten down the hatches, a storm’s coming!

Onyx Alpha: Fuels on Sale

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in fuel oil and gasoline swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Weakens to $71/bbl Levels

The November Brent futures contract has seen a weak morning, falling from $71.70/bbl at 07:00 BST to $70.78/bbl levels at 11:20 BST (time of writing). In headlines, Exxon Mobil has withdrawn from bidding on Galp Energia’s 40% stake in Namibia’s offshore Mopane oil discovery, estimated to contain at least 10 billion barrels of oil and gas worth over $10 billion. According to Reuters, over 12 oil companies, including Shell and Petrobras, had shown interest in the stake, though reasons for Exxon’s exit are unclear. Separately, oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico could face disruption unless the US National Marine Fisheries Service updates its endangered species protection regulation by December 20, following a court ruling. Without an update, the regulatory process to ensure oil and gas operations are carried out following the Endangered Species Act would become more cumbersome and complicated, potentially affecting production, as highlighted by the API. The Gulf currently produces 15% of the nation’s oil and employs over 400,000 people. At the time of writing, the Nov/Dec and Nov/May’24 Brent spreads are at $0.43/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.

The Officials: Don’t seek salvation in dollar depreciation

Naphtha Report: Cracking Strength

The naphtha market has witnessed remarkable strength on a crack basis into the new month, with the softness in naphtha offset by a weaker Brent futures complex in Northwestern Europe and Asian markets. For instance, while the Oct’24 NWE crack rallied from -$5.00/bbl a fortnight ago to -$3.25/bbl on 09 Sep (at the time of writing), the Oct/Nov’24 NWE naphtha spread weakened from $6.75/mt to $5/mt at the same time.

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