CFTC Weekly: Bulls Overcrowding
CFTC COT Report for the week ending 02 July – UPDATED WITH NYMEX DATA
News
Daily Trade Idea: 09/07/2024
Long Aug/Sep 380 spread : Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380 spread. Hot weather in the Middle East and Persian Gulf were expected to maintain power generator. End-consumers look to cool their houses and buildings. We believe demand for
European Window: Sinusoidal Brent around $86/bbl
The September Brent futures flat price witnessed a choppy Monday afternoon, first rising to $86.25/bbl before falling to $85.75/bbl, where it remains as of 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the headlines, ExxonMobil said that lower natural gas prices and refining margins are expected to hit the oil major’s Q2 earnings. Devon Energy announced on Monday that it had entered a deal to acquire Grayson Mill Energy’s Williston basin business in a cash-and-stock deal worth $5 billion, as it aims to cash in on high stock valuations to grow acreage. US SPR crude inventories rose by 0.5mb w-o-w to 373.1mb last week. According to Argus, the freight cost between Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk to China has fallen to the lowest level since October. At the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/Mar Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $3.61/bbl, respectively.
Futures Report: Europe on the Edge…?
Technical indicators showed the major futures contracts teetering on overbought in the Bollinger bands as the strength emanated from crude and was held well in the products.
Brent Forecast: 8th July 2024
Onyx Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi reports this week’s Brent forecast.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Slips Below $86.00/bbl
The September Brent futures contract has been on a downward trajectory this morning, inching lower from above $86/bbl at 08:00 BST to $85.85/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing). The persistent decline in prices following a peak of nearly $88/bbl last Friday highlights possible profit-taking by long-positioned players. In addition, the ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City reportedly shut operations as Hurricane Beryl intensified to Category 1 level alongside expectations of the hurricane strengthening further to Category 2. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry stated that the country will compensate for the overproduction of oil in 1H’24 by September 2025, with output exceeding its OPEC+ quota. Following recent disasters at energy storage facilities, Chinese authorities are planning to order large-scale fire safety investigations of these plants. In the eurozone, investor morale broke an eight-month streak of improvements, with Sentix’s index for the region falling to -7.3 points for July (prev: 0.3). Finally, at the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/March futures spreads stood at $0.80/bbl and $3.68/bbl, respectively.
Daily Trade Idea: 08/07/2024
Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges : Our trade idea is to long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges. Since 1st of July we have seen bullish movements with 3.5 Barge spreads, trading from $8/mt up to now currently trading at $11/mt. We believe spreads will
European Window: Brent Flirts With $88/bbl
The September Brent futures flat price has had an unsettled afternoon, initially rising from $87.20/bbl to $87.65/bbl and then back between 12:00 BST and 15:20 BST.
LNG Market Report: A Good Basis to Go Short…?
Russia attacked and damaged a gas facility in the Poltava region operated by UkrGazVydobuvannya (UGV), Ukraine’s state-owned producer, on 03 July.
Brent Review: 5th July 2024
The crude oil futures market rallied to 4-month highs this week and is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly increase.