Daily Trade Idea: 29/07/2024
Long Aug/Sep 0.5% Sing We saw some support on Friday which pushed the spread up to $8.00. This morning Aug/Sep dropped to $7.50, however we believe that the price will resume its upward trend.
News
European Window: Oct’24 Brent Rises Back Above $80/bbl
The October Brent futures flat price has had an extremely mixed afternoon, initially falling from $81.15/bbl at 12:00 BST to the afternoon’s low of $79.45/bbl at 15:35 BST, before it then saw a retracement up to $80.20/bbl, where it sits as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
Fuel Oil Report – 380 E/W Wins the Gold!
In HSFO over the past fortnight, we saw price action appear fairly unsettled alongside enduring relative Asian strength.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent on track for third weekly decline
The October Brent futures contract has been consistently declining all morning, falling from $81.60/bbl at 07:50 BST to $81.05/bbl as of 11:20 BST (time of writing)….
Harry Tchilinguirian – Onyx’s fundamentals eminence on OPEC+
“OPEC+ will need to maintain its current voluntary restraint to balance out growth… This will help prevent global balances from weakening at year-end and preserve a price floor at around $80 a barrel.” – Harry Tchilinguirian Follow Harry on X
European Window: Oct’24 Brent briefly dips below $80/bbl
The soon-to-be-prompt October Brent futures contract dipped to $79.55/bbl at 14:00 BST, where it found support and climbed to $81.10/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing)
Trader Meeting Notes: The Big Barf Theory
It’s the dawn of a new era in oil and everywhere else. US President Joe Biden stepped down to pave the way for a Trump vs Harris election riddled with all things Brat and Hannibal Lecter. In oil, the September Brent futures contract, unburdened from what had been the rangebound trading of last week, saw the beginning of a violent throwing-up.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Falls to $80.28/bbl
The Sep’24 Brent futures flat price has been under downward pressure this morning, falling from $81.40/bbl at 09:25 BST to $80.28/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
Daily Trade Idea: 25/07/2024
Long Aug 3.5 barge crack Structure-wise we have seen Barge cracks create a higher low and starting to push up, its recovering from the oversold territory on the RSI indicating for a potential bullish push, alongside market participants are positioned
CFTC Predictor: Bears Breaking Out…?
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.