News Archive

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Below $81/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price saw a choppy but ultimately bearish Wednesday morning, rallying to highs of $81.41/bbl by 10:07 BST which was followed by a rapid descent below $81/bbl, trading at $80.76/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). The 5.2mb crude draw, as reported by the API, has supported prices, but traders are awaiting confirmation from EIA stats. Markets are expecting a 0.2% m-o-m US core CPI reading today, which would support a Fed rate cut in September.

Daily Trade Idea: 14/08/2024

Long Oct/Nov 380 Oil stocks in Fujairah have dropped to a 10-month low. Plus demand falling after peak summer power generation for air conditioning. Oct/Nov price has fallen from $8.75 a few days ago and this trade suggestion is to

Up-Dated Supplementary Report – A Trampoline Named Contango

The Dated Brent market saw an impressive rally and was buoyed to even further heights after a very brief foray into contango territory. To borrow from the IEA, the market saw “Olympic levels of volatility” in the past month. Demonstrating this, the physical differential fell from $1.14/bbl on 2 August to -$0.19/bbl on 6 August before rising to $1.70/bbl on 12 August, reaching its highest level since February.

European Window: Brent falls below $81/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price trended lower on Tuesday afternoon, falling by over $1 after hitting resistance at the $82/bbl level, reaching lows of $80.62/bbl at 17:07 BST, and trading at $80.81/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The fall in prices can be attributed to a fading geopolitical risk premia on the decreasing likelihood of an imminent attack by Iran against Israel, while the IEA report released earlier projected a grim forecast on global oil demand growth relative to OPEC projections.

Naphtha Report: Have We Hit the Top-J…?

We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.

Dubai Market Report – Du-not-Bai

The strength emerged from a pitiful Dubai complex riddled with selling flow on the back of bearish macroeconomic data and the sell-off within wider risk assets

Onyx Alpha: Moving in Flow Motion

With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Strengthens to $82/bbl Levels

The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).

Daily Trade Idea: 13/08/2024

Short Sep 0.5% Sing Crack -The Asian LSFO has seen strength in the last few days with above average bunkering activity. However we have observed that Al-Zour refinery exports are expecting to increase with summer power generation demand typically cooling

European Window: Brent surges above $81/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price accelerated its rally on Monday afternoon, cruising past $81/bbl and trading at $81.18/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Price action has extended last week’s gains, with US recession fears easing and Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, and potentially supported by short covering flows. The market awaits response, while on Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region following Ukraine’s incursion into sovereign Russian territory. In OPEC’s August MOMR…

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