The October Brent Futures contract saw a weaker morning, trading from $81.60/bbl down to a daily low of $80.59 before rallying back up to $80.95/bbl, where it trades at the time of writing (11:20 BST). In headlines, Russia launched approximately 200 missiles at Ukraine on Monday, targeting energy installations and causing power and water outages in Kyiv.
We expect Nov’24 Brent futures to end the week trading between $78/bbl and $82.00/bbl in what continues to be a range-bound market, albeit the range is likely to be slightly wider than in recent weeks. Given the excitement around the
The bullish sentiment in crude was short-lived as money managers reverted to getting shorter in the crude futures benchmarks in the week ending 20 August. Sentiment in crude futures has become increasingly bearish on a combination of factors. The geopolitical risk premium has evaporated as markets react to positive progress towards a ceasefire deal between Israel-Hamas, whilst assessing no imminent threat to oil production, transportation, and infrastructure in the region. China’s economic troubles have played a significant role, with both OPEC and the IEA revising down their global oil demand growth projections, citing the impact of a weakened economy on oil consumption.
Last week, Brent futures slipped in the first half of the week and the market priced in an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which did not materialise. Prices were then supported as the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole some dovish hope into the market. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the need to support a strong labour market and acknowledged the unmistakable cooling in labour conditions.
Following a relatively quiet overnight session, the October Brent futures flat price spiked above $80/bbl on Monday morning, jumping by 70c in 20 minutes, trading at $80.50/bbl as of 11:20 BST (time of writing).
The October Brent futures flat price rallied into Friday afternoon, climbing by $1 from $78/bbl to the $79/bbl level by 17:00 BST (time of writing). Markets were buoyed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, where he stated that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, which was interpreted as a dovish signal. However, the question remains about the amount of the cut (25bps or 50bps), and the upcoming non-farm payrolls report on 7 September may change the calculus. BP has acquired a stake in a Chinese sustainable jet fuel company (Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co.) for 350 million yuan ($49 million). China’s Rongsheng has purchased an Aframax-sized cargo of Canada’s Kearl Lake Blend crude, which is being transported via the TMX pipeline. The crude grade is set to arrive in China for the first time since 2018. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.85/bbl and $2.84/bbl respectively.
Very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) saw a very strong two weeks, with strength especially prominent in the past week and beginning to soften on 24 Aug.
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract stood around $77.30/bbl early this morning before firming up to $78.05/bbl as of 10:55 BST. However, the contract met resistance here and softened to $77.85/bbl as of 11:15 BST (time of writing).
22 August 2024: 16:30 BST Vitol made Equinor’s dreams come true in the North Sea, with the Nordics finally selling a Sep 11-13 JohanSverdrup at Dated -95c. They’ve been trying to shift the medium sour for days. One could say
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract traded around a range of $76.20/bbl and $76.50/bbl between 13:00 BST and 14:45 BST before strengthening further into the afternoon, firming up to $77.55/bbl as of 17:10 BST (time of writing).
