News Archive

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Volatile around $78.70/bbl

The October Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile morning, trading from $78.90/bbl around 08:45 BST to a low of $78.12/bbl at 10:00 BST before rallying back up to print at $78.68/bbl, at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines, Libya’s oil production, which stood at 1.2 mb/d, was halted at several fields after the rival eastern government ordered a stop to all oil production and exports. This move deepened Libya’s political crisis, stemming from a dispute over the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya, the sole internationally recognized depository for the country’s oil revenues. Meanwhile, ONEOK, one of North America’s largest energy infrastructure operators, announced a $5.9 billion acquisition of stakes in two energy companies from Global Infrastructure Partners. ONEOK will acquire a 43% stake in EnLink Midstream for $3.3 billion and a stake in Medallion Midstream for $2.6 billion. This follows ONEOK’s $18.8 billion acquisition of Magellan Midstream Partners last year, further expanding its network of over 50,000 miles of pipelines. At the time of writing, the Oct/Nov and Oct/Apr’25 Brent Futures spreads are trading at $1.06/bbl and $3.39/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: The Bull of Oil Street

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

European Window: EIA Stats Support Brent

This afternoon, Nov’24 Brent futures flat price showed upward movement from $77.30/bbl at 12:00 BST to $77.90/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). During this time, prices were volatile with a rally to $78.16/bbl, a marked decline to $77.36/bbl at 15:30 BST before climbing to a high of $78.49/bbl at 16:07 BST. After the release of EIA stats today at 15:30 BST, Oct WTI prices reacted positively, showing upward movement from $74.52/bbl to $75/bbl at 17:00 BST. Libyan oil output has now dropped to less than 600 kb/d after producing an average of 1.2mb for the past year, following a series of oilfield closures by the eastern government this month. According to Bloomberg, this production cut is a response to the Tripoli-based government’s attempt to replace the central bank’s leadership. With Libya exporting around 85% of its oil barrels to Europe in recent years, it is likely European refiners will turn to the U.S. and West Africa to replace the Libyan light sweet crude. In other news, the Rhine river’s falling water levels are severely restricting the cargo limits for barges heading to inland Europe, Bloomberg said. Water levels on the Rhine have dropped periodically in recent years, with the water level at Kaub expected to be as low as 108cm by Sep. 1. As a result, a barge which can normally haul as much as 2.5k mt of middle distillates is restricted to loading 1.36k mt if heading past Kaub. This could drop as low as 1.2k mt. Finally, the Nov/Dec and 6-month Nov/May Brent futures spreads are at $0.79/bbl and $2.60/bbl respectively.

LPG Report: Sentiment loves G(OSP)ping

Sentiment largely improved this fortnight in Asian LPG, with the Oct/Nov Far East (FEI) propane spread surging up from -$3/mt on 14 Aug to $1.50/mt on 27 Aug.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Declines To $78/bbl

This morning, the October Brent Futures contract has seen a steep decline from highs of $79.70/bbl at 07:55 BST down to $78.35/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines, an oil depot in the Russia’s southern Rostov region was set ablaze in a Ukrainian drone strike, a retaliatory response to the Russian assault on Ukrainian energy infrastructure this Monday.

Dubai Market Report – Everything Has Changed

It was a paradigm shift in the Brent/Dubai crude market as the orderly downtrend in Brent/Dubai gave way to a mighty rally on 26 August following Brent’s rally on the Libyan supply disruption news. The Sep’24 Brent/Dubai widened from $0.30/bbl to highs of $0.90/bbl. Nonetheless, the complex is entering September pricing on a strong note, with the Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box suppressed below -$0.30/bbl. In contrast, outright prices in the deferred have returned to previous highs above $1/bbl.

Up-Dated Supplementary Report – Sentiment Ex-spiralling?

Despite the vanishing trading volumes amid 26 Aug’s UK public holiday, the beginning of the week has been anything but quiet in Brent futures.

Naphtha Report: The Cream of The Crop-J

The international naphtha market continued to see shocking strength unfold. There has been decent buying in the NWE naphtha spreads, compared to the likely profit-taking flow in the East, although both markets have been quite quiet in the fortnight. Weaker crude was helpful for the cracks, although this has now been reversed with a stronger crude print. Petchem buying has supported both regions. Chinese funds selling the PX-MOPJ spread have supported the Asian naphtha as they sell this in anticipation of further economic issues. Petchem flow has been really important in supporting prices in the past two weeks. There was significant buying in the Euro Cal’25 crack by trade houses, likely for ethylene hedging, which drove prices up as the NWE propane complex continues to be extraordinarily strong. In the East, the Bal-Aug/Sep MOPJ also strengthened due to propane’s influence as players sold into the E/W and MOPJ spreads.

European Window: Brent Weakens Below $80/bbl

The October Brent futures flat price suffered a setback on Tuesday afternoon as its sell-off accelerated following the US open. Price action fell from the $81/bbl level at 12:00 BST to lows of $79.63/bbl by 17:25 BST (time of writing). In line with this, Brent spreads weakened significantly, with Oct/Nov falling from $1.10/bbl to $0.90/bbl over the same time frame.

Onyx Alpha: Crude Behaviour

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Dated Brent, Gasoil and Naphtha. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

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