News

After this morning’s rally on the back of substantial monetary policy easing announcements in China, the Nov’24 Brent futures contract dipped over the course of this afternoon, trading at $75.51/bbl at 12:00 BST and declining to $74.90/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Price action has been volatile amid escalation of conflict in Lebanon and another hurricane threatening the US Gulf Coast. In the news today, as the Libyan political standoff continues to stall crude oil output, Libya’s exports have crashed to 400kb/d for this month compared to 1mb/d in August, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Reuters. Analytics from Kpler showed that most of these cargoes were headed to Italy and Greece, with some travelling to China and Canada. In other news, the US State Department and Global Affairs Canada are in negotiations over the maritime boundaries of the Beaufort Sea, according to Bloomberg. Overlapping between the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and the north of Alaska, the Beaufort Sea is thought to contain a potentially oil-rich seabed and is of particular importance as China and Russia seek to explore more resources and trade routes in the Arctic. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.68/bbl and $1.82/bbl, respectively.

After sideways price action this afternoon, Nov’24 Brent futures contract gradually fell from $74.69/bbl at 12:00 BST down to $73.16/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news today, China’s Russian oil imports have jumped 25.6% m/m in August as Beijing took advantage of cheaper crude prices, according to data from the Chinese General Customs Administration. Meanwhile, Chinese crude imports from Iraq rose by 43.1% m/m in August and imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 17%, as per data compiled by Russian news agency Interfax. In other news, after Israel’s defence minister announced this morning that attacks against Lebanon would escalate, aerial strikes have now killed at least 182 people, making it the deadliest day in nearly a year of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. As the conflict worsens, the potential for Iran to become more involved in backing Hezbollah has stoked concerns of Iranian oil exports being disrupted. Finally, possible strikes at the end of the month by dockworkers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports could cause major delays in shipments. According to an Oxford Economics report, the strike could involve up to 45,000 workers at ports that account for roughly 60% of US shipping traffic. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.69/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.