News Archive

European Window: Brent Pushes Up To $72/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract was initially rangebound between $71.00 and $71.50/bbl before dipping to a low of $70.93/bbl around 14:45 BST and strengthening shortly after up to around the $72.00/bbl level at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking to world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York, has vowed the IDF will continue its bombardment of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and decisively announced there would be no immediate truce. Netanyahu dedicated part of his speech to threatening Iran, stating “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach”. In other news, labour strikes at major East and Gulf Coast ports in the US are due to start early next week, with a total of 14 ports and some 25,000 workers involve, according to the United States Maritime Alliance. Finally, Indian refiners are expected to raise their total refining capacity by up to 800 kb/d by the end of the fiscal 2030 year, boosting their base capacity up to 5.92 mb/d, according to data from Crisil Ratings. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $0.74/bbl, respectively.

LNG Market Report: Bears in Transit

Government and company officials are in discussions about potential imports of gas from Azerbaijan through Russia and Ukraine to replace a transit deal that expires at the end of the year. Negotiations were continuing as of last week, Bloomberg previously reported.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Unstable At $71.23/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed choppy price action throughout this morning, trading at $70.87/bbl at 07:00 BST and rising to a high of $71.52/bbl at 09:25 BST, before falling to $71.23/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). This may have been reacting to expectations of increasing output from Libya and an OPEC+ December oil output hike. In the news today, Colombia is set to announce a $40 billion investment plan to shift away from oil to “nature-based climate solutions”, the country’s environment minister, Susana Muhamad, said. In other news, China’s central bank has lowered interest rates today as more fiscal measures are expected to be announced before 1 Oct. In order to ease the property crisis, megacities Shenzhen and Shanghai are planning to lift restrictions on the number of homes that Chinese can buy, according to Reuters. Finally, crude output by Mexican state-owned Pemex fell 6% y/y in August down to 1.77mb/d, with the Olmeca refinery’s output far below targets set by their CEO Octavio Romero. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $0.69/bbl, respectively.

Trader Meeting Notes: Swimming in Oil

The Fed has initiated the rate easing cycle, lowering its key overnight borrowing rate by 50 bps. To be sure, it was an aggressive start and underscored the Fed’s concerns surrounding employment, in contrast to its sanguine views on inflation. The dot plot points to another 50bp of cuts by year-end, 100bp in 2025, and 50Oil traders in London woke up on 26 Sep to the Dec ’24 Brent futures plummeting below $71/bbl overnight after hitting a zenith of $75/bbl on 24 Sep. Amid these sad price movements, the all-new debate gripping the oil market is whether or not OPEC+ ever decided on a $100/bbl price target for Brent. Officially, they did not.

European Window: Dec’24 Brent futures weaken to $71/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract began the afternoon weaker, falling to $70.40/bbl at 14:50 BST. While this level brought in support for the soon-to-be-prompt contract, which climbed to $71.60/bbl as of 17:00 BST, it ultimately softened to $71.00/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Climbs To $71.76/bbl

After selling-off overnight, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract was on a steady upward trend this morning, trading at $71.30/bbl at 07:00 BST and rising to $71.76/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Chinese leaders at a Politburo meeting have pledged to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to meet China’s 2024 growth target of 5%, in response to concerns about the effectiveness of the government stimulus. According to Reuters, the September meeting is not typically a forum for macroeconomic discussion, signalling growing anxiety over slowing growth in the country. In other news, a Thursday morning statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated that reports of a ceasefire with Hezbollah are incorrect, and refer to “an American-French proposal, to which the Prime Minister did not even respond”. In the meantime, the Prime Minister has instructed the IDF to continue fighting in full force. Finally, Saudi Arabia has scrapped its unofficial $100/bbl oil price target as it prepares to increase output, according to Financial Times. With OPEC+ planning to boost output towards the start of 2025, Saudi Arabia seeks to defend its market share by increasing production. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.60/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Bulls & Bears Set For Departure

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

LPG Report: Hurri-can’t keep US propane up

US Mont Belvieu TET propane (LST propane) strengthened this fortnight, on a flat price basis, with the Oct’24 contract climbing from 68.25c/gal on 11 Sep to 73.50c/gal on 24 Sep

European Window: Brent Futures Unstable At $73.23/bbl

After a relatively stable morning, price action in the Nov’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness and volatility this afternoon. Initially oscillating between high $73 and $74/bbl handles from 12:00 to 17:00 BST, price action then plummeted at 17:18 BST by 58c down to $73.23/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news today, EIA data released at 15:30 BST today for the week ending 20 Sep showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.47 mb, or more than expected and about commensurate with yesterday’s API figure. The decline was greater than the draw in the previous week, when crude stocks fell by 1.6 mb. In other news, according to Reuters, economists at Standard Chartered and HSBC have doubted the efficacy of the Chinese central bank’s stimulus package, claiming that China’s new monetary policies fail to target persistently weak consumer demand. Finally, Libyan factions have reached a preliminary agreement to appoint a governor and deputy governor of the Central Bank, as per Bloomberg, potentially marking the first step towards Libyan crude oil exports increasing. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.29/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Futures Fluctuates At $74.63/bbl

The Nov’24 Brent futures flat price was volatile this morning, trading at $74.90/bbl at 07:00 BST and reaching a high of $75.25/bbl at 10:00 BST before falling to $74.63/bbl around 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price has fluctuated in light of changing weather conditions in the US Gulf Coast, geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories ahead of EIA data releasing today at 15:30 BST. In the news, Storm Helene could develop into a Category 3 hurricane by the end of today, according to the US National Hurricane Center. The storm is reported to be moving east with oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico likely to avoid any damage, however, 16% of crude oil production has been suspended as a precaution, amounting to 284kb/d, as per data by Reuters. In other news, US East Coast ports, including the port of New York and New Jersey, are bracing for the potential longshoremen’s strike that could start 1 Oct. The ports have put operational plans in place to ensure cargoes are collected before the 30 Sep deadline and minimize disruption. Finally, Israeli public broadcaster Kan has reported that the Israeli army is preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant seen meeting soldiers training for a ground invasion scenario. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.64/bbl and $1.60/bbl, respectively.

News