News

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Weakens Slightly To $78.90/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Futures Rallies To $79.30/bbl

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.

Trader Meeting Notes: Bull-Dozed

This week, the market remained about as relaxed as a bull on Redbull. A few drowsy comments from “Sleepy Joe” were enough to get everyone on edge as we hit the one-year mark since the October 7th Hamas attacks. But the real action came when investors started sweating over China, thanks to the NDRC. Turns out, unless people start swiping those credit cards like it’s Black Friday, all that monetary stimulus is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. Speaking of storms, the EIA data offered a bit of good news for the bulls. Crude stocks didn’t pile up as high as expected, and commercial oil stockpiles dropped faster than my motivation on a Monday—over 8mb gone, with gasoline inventories taking a 6.3mb plunge. Refiners were busy, cranking out 21.2mb/d of products, with 9.7 million of that being gasoline. It seems U.S. demand is chugging along, possibly boosted by some good old hurricane panic-buying.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Strengthens To $77.72/bbl

CFTC Predictor: Bulls Set To Overtake Bears?

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

European Window: Brent Recovers To $76.75/bbl Amid Bullish EIA Stats

LPG Report: Building up Propane

Propane flat price contracts witnessed significant volatility this fortnight, with the Nov’24 US Mont Belvieu TET (LST) propane contract strengthening from under 75c/gal on 26 Sep to just shy of 84c/gal on 07 Oct. This support likely stemmed from a stronger Brent and WTI futures complex amid the worsening of Israeli-Iranian relations, triggering fears of a regional escalation of the war in Gaza.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Weakens To $76.79/bbl

After initial choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off, trading at $77.86/bbl at 07:00 BST and marginally weakening to $77.82/bbl at 11:00 BST, before plummeting to $76.79/bbl just before 11:30 BST (time of writing). Brent prices showed volatility with the EIA slashing their global oil demand growth forecast by 300kb/d to 1.2mb/d, alongside fears of intensifying conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, Hezbollah is targeting Israeli soldiers with artillery near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh, according to Reuters. However, Hezbollah also signalled that it may be open to a ceasefire with Israel, no longer conditional on a simultaneous truce in Gaza. In other news, Hurricane Milton is due to move through the across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Florida today, with a current wind speed of around 160 mph, according to the US National Hurricane Centre. Due to mass evacuation, at least 21.6% stations in Florida were out of gas at 04:00 BST this morning, as per data from gasoline analyst Patrick De Haan. In addition, around 65kb/d of US Gulf Coast oil output is shut-in, amid port restrictions in preparation for the storm. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.

Naphtha Report: Climbing to the Top-J

The naphtha market has witnessed great strength in the past two weeks, although the front cracks don’t portray this too well due to the strength in crude, which has seen a particular boost from the expansion of conflict in the Middle East. Naphtha has also softened in early October on weaker propane and a more mixed interest in the MOPJ MOC, which was unilaterally bid in the previous week. This may be a correction as we saw significant short-covering flow, which may mean the market needs to balance, and we remain bullish in both regions. The rallying flat price was chased up in NWE, with the M1 NWE naphtha flat price rising to the highest value seen since early July, at $690/mt on 7 Oct. We have seen funds add length at these higher levels, showing prop players happy to add length at NWE flat price at these high levels.

European Window: Brent Dips To $77.56/bbl

The Dec ’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a strong afternoon, recording a 2.5% increase to $80.80/bbl between 14:00 BST and 17:00 BST before softening a little to $80.70/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing). T

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