News

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened slightly this afternoon, trading at $77.27/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $77.36/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). Despite a mid-afternoon rally to $78.10/bbl at 14:50 BST, price action saw downward pressure amid OPEC’s cut to their oil demand forecast. In the news today, OPEC, in their Oct’24 monthly oil market report, has reduced their forecast for global oil demand growth from 2.03mb/d to 1.93mb/d for 2024, as per Reuters. Poor Chinese demand accounted for most of this reduction, trimmed down by OPEC from 650kb/d to 580kb/d in the report. In other news, Israeli forces have intensified their strikes on north Gaza, shifting their focus to the city of Jabalia. At least 10 people were killed in an Israeli attack on a food distribution centre in the city, according to Palestinian medics. Meanwhile, in China, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has begun air force, navy, and army drills in the Taiwan Strait. Senior Captain Li Xi of the PLA said this display serves “as a stern warning to separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces”. Finally, Algeria is set to announce a new oil and gas licensing round, in which majors including Exxon, Chevron, Eni, and Sinopec are expected to bid, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed gradual upward movement, trading at $78.65/bbl at 12:00 BST and inching up to $79.04/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). We saw some volatility in price action, with an intraday high of $79.47/bbl just before 16:00 BST, amid further conflict in Lebanon and the release of a Platts survey showing an overall decline in OPEC+ oil production. In the news today, the United Nations said that two of its peacekeepers were injured by explosions near its Naqoura headquarters in southern Lebanon, prompting criticism of Israel from European governments such as Germany and France, according to Bloomberg. In other news, the Platts OPEC+ survey has shown a 500kb/d drop in oil production for September, owing to the halt in Libyan output and improved compliance from Iraq. Lastly, Russia’s Omsk refinery, the country’s largest by production volumes, has increased crude processing by 4% y/y from January to September, according to the state-owned giant Gazprom. The company claims the Omsk refinery processed almost 426kb/d of oil throughout 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.