Summary
EBOB cracks saw a fortnight of two halves with the Jun crack first selling off and then recovering to $23.40/bbl come Apr 29. Interestingly, we saw refiners and trade houses initially buying the crack but then flipping to selling. We also saw refiners buy over 1.5mbbls of the Jun FP over the fortnight.
Open interest in the prompt increased across the gasoline complex on a two-week basis. More deferred, the TA arb saw OI in Q4 rise to 15mbbls, well above the five-year average for this time.
Weekly stocks in US gasoline witnessed back-to-back draws of 1.15mbbls and 0.634mbbls in the week to Apr 12 and Apr 19, respectively. Exports, however, recorded back-to-back declines in this time.
Looking at correlations, the TA arb displayed negative correlation to all other gasoline contracts, except for the E/W – highlighting that price action was perhaps dictated by other factors, like the recent weakness in D4 and D6 RINs.
News/Headlines
US retail automotive regular gasoline prices fell to $3.498/gal and diesel prices fell to $3.947/gal in the week ended Apr 26, as per the EIA. In gasoline, prices in the Gulf Coast fell the most to $3.175/gal (-0.8% week-on-week). On the other hand, the Rocky Mountain region saw a largest decline in diesel prices, down 25% w-o-w to $3.787/gal.
The UK’s gasoline sales in March reached 135 million litres, its highest value since 2016. The country’s gasoline sales in March 2023 stood at 125.6 million litres.
The UAE has announced its retail fuel prices for May – increasing retail rates for Super 98 petrol, Special 95 and the E-Plus 91. The Super 98 fuel will cost Dhs3.34/litre in May versus Dhs3.15/litre in April.
South Africa’s retail price for 93-octane and 95-octane gasoline is set to rise by 37c/litre, as per a statement by Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Gwede Mantashe.
Petrobas closed Q1’24 with a 3.7% increase, year-on-year, in oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas production to 2.77mbbls/d in Brazil and abroad.
