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Choppy Morning for Brent Amid Jul Expiry

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The Aug Brent Futures flat price has seen a slight uptick this morning following some choppiness. The contract rose from $81.70/bbl at 06:45 BST to a high of $82.20/bbl at 10:25 BST, before rapidly dropping to $81.60/bbl by 10:45 BST. Subsequently, it recovered most of these losses to sit at $82.05/bbl as of 11:10 BST (time of writing). Missiles fired by the Ukrainian navy struck an oil terminal at the Russian port of Kavkaz in the Krasnodar region on Friday, with the Russian military reporting explosions from Ukrainian-made Neptune missiles and currently working to verify the damage. This occurred at the same time as Ukrainian drones also reportedly struck another oil depot in the Krasnodar region. Malaysia will implement a floating diesel price mechanism alongside target diesel subsidies this year according to state news agency Bernama. Mexico’s crude output is set to stagnate without private investment, with its NOC Pemex requiring funding as its debt has ballooned to $100 billion. Energy policies to address this are yet to be announced by Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who is now almost certain to become Mexico’s next president in this Sunday’s election. The Aug/Sep and Aug/Feb’25 spreads are $0.24/bbl and $2.25/bbl, respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.