The Aug Brent futures flat price primarily traded around $82.10/bbl all morning although it ultimately climbed to $82.35/bbl as of 11:15 BST (time of writing). Today’s marginal price movements may be attributed to the public holidays in the UK and the US. CFTC data for the week to May 21 highlights a removal of over 38mbbls of speculative long positions in Brent futures alongside an addition of over 28mbbls in money managed shorts, taking net positioning down to its lowest level since mid-December 2023. Sentiment in the previous week saw jitters regarding how soon the US Fed will begin cutting rates which may be more clear this week amid US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data due on May 31. This sentiment may also be clearer following OPEC+’s long awaited meeting on June 02. In other news, Iran has approved a plan to increase its oil output to from 3.6mbbls/d to 4mbbls/d. Pipeline operators in Poland and Russia have agreed on a solution which will permit Kazakh oil transit to Germany, curbing fears that the transit would end in June. Finally, the Aug/Sep and Aug/Feb Brent futures spreads are currently at $0.40/bbl and $2.90/bbl, respectively.
