The Nov’24 Brent futures contract has been quieter this morning, trading between $71.60/bbl and $71.90/bbl, but has since inched slightly lower to $71.50/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). This relative quiet likely comes from a drop in trading volumes amid the start of the APPEC conference in Singapore. Morgan Stanley has cut its price forecast for Brent futures, stating that the crude benchmark will likely average $75/bbl in Q4’25. This forecast follows last month’s projection of a $5 decline to $80/bbl in Q4’24. In addition, as per a report by Reuters, Ben Luckock, global head of oil at Trafigura, said at an event at APPEC that he saw key risks of oil prices falling into the $60s “sometime relatively soon” due to concerns of oversupply and China’s sluggish demand. Adding to this, China’s CPI for Aug’24 climbed to +0.6% y/y (July’24: +0.5% y/y) while producer prices witnessed a worse deflation in Aug’24, at -1.8% y/y (July’24: -0.8% y/y). Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Nov/Dec’24 and six-month Nov/May’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.00/bbl, respectively.
