Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw flat price steadily climbing this morning, trading at $74.80/bbl at 07:00 BST and hitting $75.73/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Israel’s foreign ministry has barred UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres from entering the country due to his alleged failure to “unequivocally condemn” Iran’s attack on Israel, according to Reuters. Whilst anticipation of a retaliatory attack against Iran mounts, Israel has increased military presence in Lebanon, with regular infantry and armoured units joining ground operations. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has stated that crude prices could drop to as low as $50/bbl if OPEC+ members do not conform to agreed-upon production limits. Finally, despite pressure from the China, Malaysia has reportedly stepped up oil exploration in the South China Sea, which is estimated to contain 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 37% of the world’s maritime crude, as per data by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.49/bbl, respectively.
