Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price declined this morning from $73.27/bbl at 07:00 BST down to $72.65/bbl handles at 11:20 BST (time of writing). Crude prices fell alongside API estimates showing an unexpected increase of 1.96 mb in US crude oil inventories on Tuesday. This weakness came in spite of bullish factors including escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the potential for a 50-basis point Fed cut to stimulate US economic growth. In the news today, the explosive pagers used against Hezbollah in yesterday’s bombing in Lebanon were alleged to have been modified by Israel’s Mossad spy agency at the production level. A Lebanese security source told Reuters that up to 3kg of plastic explosives were hidden in the 5,000 Gold Apollo brand pagers ordered by Hezbollah. The group has communicated via Telegram today that they intend to retaliate against the Israeli attacks. In other news, US Gulf Coast oil shut-ins have dropped to 102 kb/d as output recovers after Hurricane Francine dissipated on 14 Sep. The US is also seeking to increase their SPR by 6 mb of crude amid relatively low oil prices. Finally, Russia could hold off oil export cuts in October due to domestic refineries maintenance, as per Reuters. Furthermore, Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has stated that India will not change its energy policy to buy oil from the cheapest supplier, indicating that India will continue to buy cheap Russian crude oil. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.69/bbl and $1.61/bbl, respectively.
