The September Brent futures contract has witnessed a weaker morning amid the flat price, falling from above $84.50/bbl at 06:45 BST to $84.10/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). Sentiment likely remains pressured following the poor Chinese economic data announcements from this week, with market players now awaiting cues of stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum this week. Furthermore, China is reportedly planning to cut carbon emissions in its coal power industry by methods such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, in addition to attempting to fire power plants using coal mixed with either green ammonia or biomass. Russia’s exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.11mb/d in the four weeks ending 14 July, their lowest level since January 2024. The drop was predominantly in shipments from Russia’s Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, where exports dropped by 11% in two weeks. This afternoon, the market is likely to turn its attention to US macro data, notably US retail sales (released today at 13:30 BST), which will impact expectations around the timing of a policy rate cut by the Fed. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month and six-month futures spread stood at $0.90/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.
