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Brent stays strong trading around the $82/bbl mark

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The Apr Brent futures contract has weakened throughout the day and traded from above the $83/bbl mark to be priced at $82.16/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). WTI Apr prices have also come off today, initially trading above the $78/bbl mark and currently at $77.02/bbl at 17:00 GMT.

Saudi oil flow will continue through the Red Sea despite an ongoing regional conflict, confirms Saudi Aramco as it deems the risk for its tankers ‘manageable’. At the moment, China and Russia are exempt from Houthi attacks due to their political alignment. Although Saudi Arabia has a smaller risk of attack compared to its European and American counterparts, fewer vessels are willing to face the risks and added costs associated with the transit.

The Dangote Refinery is preparing to import crude from the US in the coming months. According to a source close to the matter, Trafigura has sold 2mbbls of WTI Midland to the Dangote refinery for delivery by the end of February. This signals the growing presence of American crude in international markets. Still, the refinery’s main source of crude is local, with grades used such as Amenam, Bonny Light and CJ Blend Streams.

According to data from the Petroleum and Analysis Cell (PPAC), Indian crude oil imports rose in December by 1.1% year-on-year to 19.8mt. This represents a 7.4% increase, compared to November levels. Notably, India imported more Nigerian crude than in November on the back of a large crude overhang in crude for the largest African oil producer. India also hit a seven-month high in fuel consumption.

The Apr/May and Apr/Oct Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $2.50/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.