The Dec’24 Brent futures flat price recovered this afternoon after initial weakness, amid Iran’s threat to target Israeli gas infrastructure should conflict erupt. The Dec’24 contract traded at $78.63/bbl at 12:00 BST and dipped to $77.84/bbl around 13:20 BST, before strengthening to $78.66/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Prices have been volatile throughout the afternoon following Iran’s call for a Gaza/Lebanon ceasefire and the release of US NFP data at 13:30 BST, showing a 245k increase in jobs for September, significantly higher than expected. In the news today, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi in Beirut said that the Iran will support a ceasefire on the condition it is backed by Hezbollah and synchronized with an end to conflict in the Gaza Strip. Concerns are mounting over the feasibility of this ceasefire, as Israel hits Beirut today with one of its heaviest airstrikes yet. In other news, Brazil’s state-owned oil giant Petrobras is redeveloping the Tupi oil field, one of the largest deep-water reserves globally currently producing over 760kb/d. Petrobras has outlined plans to enhance extraction rates at Tupi and is considering adding another production unit, estimated to cost $4 billion to install. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $2.63/bbl, respectively.
