Feb’25 Brent futures failed to break through support at $72.00/bbl throughout this afternoon and rose to $73.00/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that potential G7 sanctions on Russia’s oil industry could destabilise global energy markets and prompt Russian countermeasures. Proposed measures include reducing the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $40/bbl or banning its transportation and insurance, though no decision has been finalised. According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, Russia increased oil exports to China by 1.65% year-on-year to 99 million tons from January to November, valued at $57.4 billion (+4.7%). The EIA forecasts U.S. energy consumption rising from 93.69 qBtu in 2023 to 95.15 qBtu in 2025, with liquid fuels averaging 20.29 mb/d in 2024 and 20.53 in 2025 and natural gas at 90.5 and 90.2 billion cubic feet/day, respectively. Russia remains China’s top oil supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. Presidents Putin and Xi emphasised strengthening energy cooperation during their May meeting. At the time of writing, the front (Feb/Mar’25) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’25) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.89/bbl, respectively.
