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European Window: Brent Continues to Strengthen

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The Mar’25 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from under $74.00/bbl at mid-day to $74.45/bbl at 1715 GMT. US SPR crude inventories increased by about 0.3mb last week, reaching 393.6mb. Sour crude rose by 0.3mb to 250.3mb, while sweet crude remained unchanged at 143.3mb. Nigeria’s state-owned National Petroleum Company announced that its second refinery in Warri, located in the southern region, is now operational. The 125 kb/d refinery, under a $898 million rehabilitation since 2021, is now running at 60% capacity, focusing on kerosene, diesel, and naphtha production, according to NNPC CEO Mele Kyari and the presidency. Iran’s non-oil exports surged 18% to $43.14 billion in the first nine months of the Iranian calendar year, driven by a 33% rise in petrochemical exports, totalling $19.7 billion. Export volumes grew 13.77%, while imports reached $50.89 billion, with higher per-ton values despite a drop in weight. China remained the top export market, followed by Iraq, the UAE, and Turkey. The Chicago PMI dropped to 36.9, signalling a deeper-than-expected contraction in the region’s manufacturing sector and potential bearish pressure on the US dollar. This was well below the forecast of 42.7, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.07/bbl, respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.