Nov’24 Brent Futures flat price initially declined this afternoon from $70.60/bbl at 12:00 BST down to a low of $69.06/bbl at 15:50 BST, testing the key psychological support level of $70/bbl again before rebounding up and touching $70.90/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). The drop below $70/bbl likely triggered a sell-off as traders moved to minimize exposure to further downside risk. However, the swift recovery above $70/bbl may suggest strong buying interest at this critical level, with potential upside momentum. In the news today, EIA data for the week ending 06 Sep showed US crude inventories rose by 0.833 mb, below market expectations of a 1 mb rise, whilst US crude oil imports increased to 1.526 mb, compared to a 0.85mb draw over the previous week. According to Bloomberg, the increasing stockpile of US inventories has added to concerns about an oversupply of crude. In other news, Libya’s oil exports have plummeted to 194 kb/d, which is an 81% w/w decrease in exports, as per data by Reuters. The situation remains uncertain as the political standoff over control of the central bank continues between Libya’s rival governments. Finally, the National Hurricane Center has stated that Hurricane Francine is due to hit Louisiana this afternoon, with operations now suspended at Port Fourchon, a key energy services hub and supplier of equipment to offshore oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.
