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Early European Window: Brent Declines To $73.90/bbl

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The Mar’25 Brent futures contract was initially supported around the $74.50/bbl level this morning at 0800 GMT, before falling to $73.90/bbl at 1310 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Ukrainian drone attack in western Russia caused a fuel spill and fire at an oil depot according to Vasily Anokhin, the governor of Russia’s Smolensk region. Meanwhile, Gazprom said that it would pump a reduced volume of gas to Europe via Ukraine today, as per Reuters. This comes as the Ukrainian gas transit deal is expected to expire on 1 January, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 26 Dec statement that there was insufficient time this year to negotiate a new agreement. In other news, Iran has appointed Ali-Mohammad Mousavi as its representative to OPEC, replacing Afshin Javan. Mousavi currently serves as Deputy Minister for International Affairs and Commerce at the Iranian Oil Ministry. Finally, President Xi Jinping said in a speech today that China’s 2024 GDP growth is projected to expand around 5%, reported by Xinhua. According to Bloomberg, economists forecast an expansion of 4.8% for China’s GDP this year. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.94/bbl, respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.