26 November 2024: 16:30 GMT
Ceasefire in Lebanon to be announced at 10 p.m., takes effect at 10 a.m., sources in Israel said. A glimmer of peace pierced with bombings but a step in the right direction. Crude prices were rangebound and choppy in the afternoon. Front-month Brent futures pierced the $74 level before rapidly retreating again to the comfy 73s safe space before a post-window sell off saw flat price drop down to almost the $72/bbl level. Currently, OPEC has pencilled in a 180kb/d increase in supply for January, but our sources expect a wimpy rollover and continuing vigorous cheating. The oil market, no surprises here will enter surplus next year. Any new OPEC production will go into inventories, contango here we come! And we all know what is going on behind closed doors in Abu Dhabi, Baghdad and Tehran, especially there. Just look at the fuel oil exports from Iraq. In 2023, they exported a record 14 million tonnes; this year, they are set to break 18 million tonnes. Never mind if the fuel oil was a little lighter and less refined than usual… We hear similar stories for spiked barrels out of other nearby areas. Mix in a little condensate, and it’s not crude oil anymore; it’s a whole new thing… and, therefore, excluded from the quotas. Guess where?
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which will initially be published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST).
For any comments, please reach out to us through the emails provided in the signed documents.
