25 September 2024: 16:30 BST
Barfing Boris is at it again and flat price dumped again. There was a massively ‘constructive’ EIA’s inventory release,
but the market chucked the barrel down the stairs. The window closed at $74.67/bbl, relatively near the $75.25/bbl
high of the morning. But then Brent swooned, falling to a low of $73.07/bbl by 17:22. As we noted earlier, $72 was
more likely than $77 and we are almost there. So, why did the market fall? Besides the awful macros, we had the Libya
effect. Markets apparently hate the prospect of peace and love and dumped oil as warrying factions in Libya were
finally together and agreeing on an interim central bank chief: Naji Issa. Can this (un)fortunate fellow keep the warring
factions in line? Only time will tell. But the reality is a bit simpler. All the factions need money and the only way to
generate it is to sell oil. If they fight, they will still find a way to sell. Going long on Libya is a fool’s errand.
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