7 November 2024: 16:30 GMT
A general downtrend through the morning shifted into reverse when the Americans woke up (again). Flat price got choppy – they’re less decisive about where they want their oil price than who they want as president! A foray beyond $75 before the window was partially pared back by the close, but Brent held on to end the day at $75.09/bbl. Post-window, it climbed again, towards the upper-$75 range. The bears are ever more numerous. Citi expects prices to tumble with a Trump presidency. The big bank now expects Brent to average $60/bbl next year. It thinks a second term for Trump will be bearish by relaxing the regulatory environment: reversing Biden’s increases to royalties, costs for minimum bids and lease rates on Federal lands highlighted as important drivers. According to Citi, Europe and China are particularly “exposed” to the risks of a blazing trade war. Citi had already been projecting only around 700 kb/d of oil demand growth this year, so it’s not like they’re new to the bearish camp, but they’ve doubled down on their position.
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