25 September 2024: 09:30 BST
Today’s window was like a primary school sports day where everyone gets a medal or a cargo, and Upper Zakum at that; we got four convergences! That’s more than any other session so far this month. Longs and shorts clashed with equal enthusiasm with differentials only changing marginally. So much effort to keep the price contained one way or the other. Mitsui and North Petroleum were the buyers, as ever, and Exxon and Trafi kept selling. North Petroleum took home a convergence from both of these mighty ones, while Vitol and Mitsui each got one from Exxon. Traders were expecting a Murban cargo to be delivered as prices fell briefly on IFAD below the physical Dubai, but nothing of the sort happened. Murban recovered after that brief dizzy spell. By our counting that makes 7 convergences for Mitsui, which is streaking ahead of North Petroleum and Vitol, who have only got 3 so far. So, what’s Mitsui up to? Last month sources alleged that they were working with PetroChina on the buyside. This month we have not heard anything we could repeat. If all this oil is going to China, it wouldn’t be refined anytime soon. No quick recovery is expected as wealth has been destroyed by the plunge in property prices. A source shared a chart displaying the fall nearing 30% from the highs, but some Chinese sources say in some areas is as bad as 60%!!!
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