8 October 2024: 09:30 BST
Watch out really for the possibility of the price balloon popping. Prices went up on China and thoughts of Israel bombing
oil installations and other dangerous things. And so far both look like a limpid wet noodle. Brent flat price has been
floating high, but the market is starting to feel heavy. Prices had been buoyed by fears of Middle Eastern conflict and
hopes of China’s “fiscal bazooka”. But China’s failure to turn up was confirmed by today’s National Development and
Reform Commission (NDRC) press conference. It also looks unlikely that Israel will disrupt Iran’s oil activities – if it wants
to keep getting presents from the US and UK. If further escalation fails to materialise, there may be a day of reckoning
coming for markets. If there’s no military action, expect bears to come out of hibernation and savage the beleaguered
bulls. It may already have begun; traders noted a pivot in the market yesterday. The window was still busy, though. Exxon
regained its position as the big seller. There was a sea of ‘Exxon sells’ and ‘Totsa buys’, while numerous others came in
for the party: Vatman and Gobin started flirting again, and Trafi sold sporadically, while several others joined in too.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which will initially be published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST).
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