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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent supported above $76

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Mar’25 Brent futures dropped overnight to a low of around $75.70/bbl at 0140 GMT before it was slightly more supported to $76.10/bbl at 1020 GMT (time of writing). Shell has deemed its oil discovery off Namibia’s coast commercially unviable, leading to a projected $400m (£325.52m) write-down, Reuters reports. This setback hinders Namibia’s hopes of becoming an oil producer, with Shell stating that resources in offshore block PEL39 “cannot currently be confirmed for commercial development.” Alaska is suing the Biden administration, claiming it violated a Trump-era law by limiting oil and gas drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The 2017 law required two lease sales by December 2024, but Alaska argues the administration’s recent 400,000-acre lease, announced with restrictions, fails to meet the mandate. Oil companies declined to bid in a US government auction for Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling rights, reflecting waning industry interest in the crude-rich but challenging region. The Interior Department reported no bids ahead of Friday’s unsealing, marking the second failed auction in 4 years. A 2021 sale under Trump drew just 11 bids, mostly from an Alaska development corporation. In Canada, Alberta’s oil production reached a record 4.197 mb/d in November, surpassing the previous high of 4.187 mb/d set in December 2023, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator. The front (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.61/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.