The Mar’25 Brent futures contract softened to $72.70/bbl at 06:35 GMT but strengthened to $73.05/bbl by 10:15 GMT (time of writing). The API has estimated a 3.2mb decline in US crude oil inventories for the week ending 20 Dec, while the official figures for the same by the EIA are due to be released today at 18:00 GMT. The market may have also seen support from a rosier picture for China’s economy this week, with the World Bank raising its forecast for China’s economic growth to 4.9% in 2024 (June forecast: 4.8%) and 4.5% in 2025 (June forecast: 4.1%). Despite the increase, the relative decline in 2025 remains due to “subdued household and business confidence” alongside headwinds in the property sector. In other news, European oil majors slowed down and sometimes reversed their clean energy commitments in 2024. They are expected to continue this trend in 2025 to concentrate on short-term profits to compete with their US counterparts, as per a Reuters report. Finally, Russia declared a federal emergency on Thursday over an oil spill caused by two Russian tankers in the Black Sea on 15 Dec. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $1.94/bbl, respectively.
