The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw volatility for the week ending 1 Oct, trading at a weekly high of $74.96 on 24 Sep amid escalation of conflict in the Middle East and selling off to $70.34/bbl by the morning of 1 Oct, before quickly recovering above $74.00/bbl in the afternoon as reports of Iran’s missile attack on Israel mounted. Over the week, we saw downward pressure on prices alongside EIA data released on 25 Sep for the week ending 20 Sep, showing a much larger draw than expected in US crude oil inventories. This was compounded by Libyan government factions agreeing on an interim Central Bank governor, marking a step towards increasing Libyan oil exports. In line with this price volatility, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates an exodus of speculative long positions in Brent alongside some reduction in shorts for the week ending 24 Sep, with market players looking to avert risk. Notably, we anticipate long and short prod/merc positions in Brent futures to decrease by 19mb and 26mb w/w, respectively.
