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Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 06 Jan 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 06 Jan saw an increase in net positioning with a rise in bullish sentiment. Net positioning for the total collection of futures climbed from -59k on 9 Dec, flipping positive to 5k by 06 Jan. We have seen that total net positioning has been increasing steadily since the start of December, recorded at -106k on 03 Dec. This week, we saw significant strength across the futures contracts, with WTI seeing a particularly high increase w/w from -10k to 5.6k while Brent followed close behind, increasing from -12k to 1.6k. RBOB futures remained the lowest on the positioning model, moving up from -24k on 31 Dec to -12k by 06 Jan.

Brent Forecast: 6th January 2025

On Monday, the front-month March 2025 Brent contract moved higher to trade just under $77.50/bbl at the time of writing. Some of the recent buoyancy in crude prices stemmed from the strength in physical Middle Eastern and Asian markets, with

Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index

This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

Brent Forecast Review: 20th December 2024

The front-month (Feb’25) Brent is on track for a weekly decline, as price action has fallen by 2% to $72.50/bbl by 13:30 GMT (time of writing). Various factors have pressured crude prices this week, including more hawkish signals from the

Bloomberg survey of crude oil price forecasts

This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve

COT Report: Fuel-tide Greetings

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx Global Oil Balance

Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.

This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.

The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.

Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.

Brent Forecast: 16th December 2024

The front-month (Feb’25) Brent futures contract has seen a supportive performance in the past week, rising to highs of $74.50/bbl on 13 December – but has come off to the $74/bbl level on 16 December (time of writing). This week,

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Weakens to $73.80/bbl Levels

The Feb’25 Brent Futures contract experienced a weaker morning session, trading down from around $74.20/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $73.94/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing) as traders take profit and await the Fed’s interest rate decision, with market expectations of a 25bp cut. In headlines Libya’s largest refinery, Zawiya (120 kb/d capacity), suffered fires over the weekend caused by gunfire during armed clashes, prompting the NOC to declare force majeure on Sunday. While the fires were controlled by Monday, the force majeure remains in place amid urges for the government to end clashes to prevent further damage and potential loss of life. This incident underscores ongoing risks to Libya’s oil industry, despite recent production gains, with output reaching 1.59 mb/d in October after resolving earlier political disputes and blockades. In other news, China’s refined oil consumption peaked in 2023 at 399 million metric tons (approximately 8 mb/d) and is projected to decline by 1.3% in 2024, according to CNPC’s Economics & Technology Research Institute. This decline is largely attributed to the rapid expansion of the EV sector, with forecasts suggesting that by 2035, EVs will make up half of the country’s car fleet, alongside increasing adoption of alternative fuels for trucks. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.68/bbl, respectively.

Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index

Refinery Margins Report

Brent Forecast Review: 13th December 2024

Iran v Israel, again On Monday, we forecast that the front-month Brent futures contract would end the week between $71 and $74/bbl. As of Friday, 8:30am GMT (time of writing), the contract is trading at around $73.60/bbl, well within this

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Strengthens To $74.10/bbl

he Feb’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $73.45/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.10/bbl around 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw support amid reports that Russia attacked Ukrainian energy facilities this morning, targeting power substations and gas infrastructure, industry sources told Reuters. In the news today, Russian forces are advancing towards the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, now focusing on consolidating control of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine where Russia occupies over 60% of the territory, as per Reuters. In other news, Canadian oil producers plan to hike output next year, with Cenovus setting a growth target of 4.4% between 805kb/d and 845kb/d, driven by the start-up of the Narrows Lake oil sands project. Suncor also aims to boost production in 2025 by 4.4% to between 810kb/d and 840kb/d. Finally, Nigeria’s Seplat Energy is set to revive hundreds of Exxon’s idle Nigerian oil wells after completing its purchase of Exxon’s onshore oil and gas assets in the West African nation, according to Bloomberg. Seplat plans to increase oil output by 200kb/d, with CEO Samson Ezugworie stating in a Thursday interview that only 200 of around 600 blocks are currently producing. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.37/bbl and $1.58/bbl, respectively.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

OECD Oil Inventories held by industry

The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency

COT Report: Oil I Want for Christmas is You

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

Onyx Global Oil Balance

Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.

Brent Forecast: 9th December 2024

Instability in the Middle East The front-month (February 2025) Brent futures contract weakened below $71/bbl on 06 Dec, dipping under the boundary of the symmetric triangle within which the M1 futures contract has oscillated since September (attached). As of Monday,

Refinery Margins Report

Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index

Brent Review: 2nd December 2024

TARGET: $70.00/bbl – $73.50/bbl PRICE: $71.65/bbl OPEC+: Much Ado About Nothing The front-month February 2025 Brent Friday morning was roughly where it started the week, with a brief rally in between. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at

COT Report: Bulls Remain Cautious

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Brent Forecast: 2nd December 2024

The front-month February 2025 Brent contract kicked off Monday by rebounding from last Friday’s lows, trading towards $72.70/bbl at the time of writing. However, the path of least resistance for the flat price this week is still one of weakness

Refinery Margins Report

Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

COT Report: Trading Thanksgiving

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Brent Forecast: 25th November 2024

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract concluded last week on a solid note, closing at $75.20/bbl on 22 Nov off the back of escalating tension around the Ukraine war. Prices softened to $74.35/bbl this morning, where they found support briefly, but

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 25 Nov 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 25 Nov saw increasing bullish sentiment as net positioning increased across the major oil futures benchmarks. Total net positioning rose from -118k on 18 Nov to -52k by 25 Nov, the highest level since 16 Oct, with middle distillates leading the way. The product with the most bullish positioning is now ICE gasoil, which surpassed Heating Oil on 18 Nov and rose to -4k by 25 Nov. The lower net positions are shared by RBOB, Brent, and WTI. Overall net positioning has struggled in the second half of this year and has not been positive since mid-July. It remains to be seen if the current increase in bullish positioning can be sustained.

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